Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Billy Carlson

CWS · Single-A · SS · Age 20

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score65.6#357 Overall
Baseline66Most likely outcome
Performance48Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor60Lower-end outcome
Baseline66Most likely outcome
Ceiling71High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

Performance

Selected evidence
48Developing performance profile
Power.083 ISOLimited current game power
Contact22.0% KNear expected range
Approach15.3% BBStrong on-base approach

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall55
Hit45
Power50
Run55
Field70
Arm70

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-29

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh89How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh5Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection39.4
Projected Range21–58
Arrival Probability6%
Productive Role Probability1%
Player Background
OrganizationChicago White Sox
LevelSingle-A
PositionSS
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 63 Latest recorded 66
70 64.5 59 2026-09-02 · Median 63 2026-09-03 · Median 63 2026-09-05 · Median 63 2026-09-06 · Median 63 2026-09-09 · Median 65 2026-09-14 · Median 65.1 2026-09-15 · Median 65 2026-09-16 · Median 65 2026-09-17 · Median 65 2026-09-18 · Median 65 2026-09-19 · Median 65 2026-09-21 · Median 65 2026-09-22 · Median 65 2026-09-24 · Median 65 2026-09-25 · Median 65 2026-09-29 · Median 66 2026-09-30 · Median 66 2026-10-03 · Median 66 2026-10-04 · Median 66 2026-10-05 · Median 66 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 66

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0566
2026-10-0466
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2026-09-0563
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