Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Jul 7, 2026 · 1:41 PM ET
Model Last Run: Jul 7, 2026 · 1:41 PM ET Coverage: Active minor league players only · MLB-rostered players excluded
Today’s Read

What Changed Today

Alexander Frias is today’s headline Top 100 pressure name with a Median of 82. Kade Anderson gives the board another top-tier follow with -0.1% trend. Leo De Vries is the key pullback to contextualize before overreacting. MIL is the organization on the rise in this daily snapshot.

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Today’s Prospect Signals

The most useful reads from the latest Prospect Baseline model run.

69
Biggest Riser MIA · P · AA

Profile is worth tracking against the next daily run.

+5.6%
Median Movement 0.0
06/04 baseline 6606/06 baseline 6606/08 baseline 6606/10 baseline 6606/12 baseline 6606/14 baseline 6606/16 baseline 6606/18 baseline 6606/20 baseline 6606/22 baseline 6606/24 baseline 6606/26 baseline 6506/29 baseline 6507/01 baseline 6507/05 baseline 6207/07 baseline 66 68 60 07/07
Start66 Current66 Points30
84
Top 100 Watch Leader MIL · OF · Single-A

Strong Public Top 100 pressure from the current model profile.

81%
Median Movement +26.0
06/04 baseline 5606/06 baseline 5606/08 baseline 6006/10 baseline 5906/12 baseline 5906/14 baseline 6506/16 baseline 6406/18 baseline 6406/20 baseline 6706/22 baseline 6706/24 baseline 6706/26 baseline 8406/29 baseline 8407/01 baseline 8407/05 baseline 8207/07 baseline 82 89 51 07/07
Start56 Current82 Points30
69
Highest Median Gain MIA · P · AA

Largest median lift using available model history.

+4.0
Median Movement 0.0
06/04 baseline 6606/06 baseline 6606/08 baseline 6606/10 baseline 6606/12 baseline 6606/14 baseline 6606/16 baseline 6606/18 baseline 6606/20 baseline 6606/22 baseline 6606/24 baseline 6606/26 baseline 6506/29 baseline 6507/01 baseline 6507/05 baseline 6207/07 baseline 66 68 60 07/07
Start66 Current66 Points30
63
Most Volatile MIA · C · AAA

Profile is worth tracking against the next daily run.

Wide Range
Median Movement +17.0
06/04 baseline 4606/06 baseline 4606/08 baseline 4606/10 baseline 4606/12 baseline 4606/14 baseline 4606/16 baseline 4606/18 baseline 4806/20 baseline 4806/22 baseline 4806/24 baseline 4806/26 baseline 6606/29 baseline 6607/01 baseline 6607/05 baseline 6307/07 baseline 63 70 42 07/07
Start46 Current63 Points30
Top 100 Pressure Dzierwa 79%
Top 100 Pressure Rodríguez 79%
Top 100 Pressure Rada 78%
Model Risers Dishmey +5.6%
Model Risers Ortega +5.4%
Model Risers Arnaud +5.2%
Risk Review Owens -25.0%
Risk Review Meneses -24.9%
Risk Review Rondon -19.5%
Breakout Watch Primera 65%
Breakout Watch Martinez 65%
Breakout Watch Harlan 66%

3 Up / 3 Down / 3 Watch

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3 Up

MIA · AA · P +5.6%

Profile is worth tracking against the next daily run.

BAL · Single-A · C +5.4%

Profile is worth tracking against the next daily run.

NYM · High-A · P +5.2%

Profile is worth tracking against the next daily run.

3 Down

MIL · Single-A · P -24.9%

Recent model signal weakened; the next run matters.

NYY · AA · P -10.7%

Recent model signal weakened; the next run matters.

TEX · AAA · P -6.9%

Current performance is running ahead of the long-term baseline.

3 Watch

MIL · Single-A · OF -0.1%

Strong Public Top 100 pressure from the current model profile.

BAL · AA · P 0.0%

Profile is worth tracking against the next daily run.

CIN · AAA · LF -0.4%

Strong baseline profile with current performance still catching up.

Signal Ledger

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PlayerSignalMetricReasonAction
Riser +5.6% Outside current top 100; high confidence; age/level runway
Riser +5.4% Impact Bat
Riser +5.2% Outside current top 100
Riser +4.2% Outside current top 100; breakout signal; high confidence
Riser +3.9% Outside current top 100; high confidence
Faller -25.0% Risk Review

Top 100 Watch

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1
81%
2
79%
3
79%
4
78%
5
77%

Featured Board: Breakout Watch

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RankPlayerOrgLevelPosMedianTrendRiskAction
1 BOS FCL C 68 +0.1% 24
2 MIL ACL SS 68 0.0% 24
3 LAD High-A 3B 67 -0.4% 21
4 ATH AA C 63 0.0% 14
5 CIN ACL P 66 -0.1% 24

Top 100 Index

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Collective Performance Updating

Average performance trend for the current top 100 over available model history.

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