Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET
Prospect Discovery

Find the gap between tools and results

Five focused player reads explain what is translating, what is lagging, and which metrics can confirm the next move.

Discovery #1 Jagger Haynes SD / AAA / P
Tools Ahead of Results
Stuff not yet translating

The verified pitch-quality expectation is running ahead of current bat-missing results

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#499 Median57 Performance50 Trend-0.2%
Why the player is here
  • Best pitch grade 55; dominance evidence sits near the 18th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • K/9 is 7.7
Tool vs observed resultsPercentile scale
Stuff-40.5 percentile gap
Expected 58 Observed 18
Command+17.4 percentile gap
Expected 33 Observed 51
Median Movement +6.0
06/04 median 5106/05 median 5106/06 median 5106/07 median 5106/08 median 5106/09 median 5106/10 median 5106/11 median 5106/12 median 5106/13 median 5206/14 median 5206/15 median 5206/16 median 5206/17 median 5306/18 median 5306/19 median 5006/20 median 5006/21 median 5006/22 median 5006/23 median 5006/24 median 5006/25 median 5106/26 median 5106/28 median 5106/29 median 5106/30 median 5107/01 median 5107/03 median 5307/05 median 5307/07 median 5307/09 median 5307/11 median 5307/12 median 5107/14 median 5107/16 median 5107/21 median 5307/22 median 5307/23 median 6007/24 median 6008/20 median 5408/22 median 5408/23 median 5408/25 median 5408/27 median 5408/28 median 5409/01 median 5509/02 median 5509/03 median 5509/05 median 5509/06 median 5509/09 median 5709/14 median 5709/15 median 5609/16 median 5609/17 median 5709/18 median 5709/19 median 5709/21 median 5709/22 median 5709/24 median 57 62 48 09/24
Start51 Current57
Metrics to followUse the info buttons for definitions
K/9i 7.7 Primary bat-missing indicator
K-BB%i 9.4% Separates dominance from walk cost
BB/9i 4.1 Shows whether control is limiting the arsenal

Next checkpointRecheck K/9, K-BB%, and BB/9 after the next 20 innings

Discovery #2 Termarr Johnson PIT / AAA / 2B
Tools Ahead of Results
Power not yet translating

The verified power grade is running ahead of current game power. ISO and slugging are the clearest checkpoints

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#354 Median62 Performance53 Trend0.0%
Why the player is here
  • Power 50; game-power evidence sits near the 16th percentile for comparable players
  • ISO is 0.120
Tool vs observed resultsPercentile scale
Contact-23.0 percentile gap
Expected 50 Observed 27
Game Power-33.6 percentile gap
Expected 50 Observed 16
Median Movement -4.0
06/04 median 6606/05 median 6606/06 median 6606/07 median 6606/08 median 6606/09 median 6606/10 median 6606/11 median 6606/12 median 6606/13 median 6606/14 median 6606/15 median 6606/16 median 6606/17 median 6606/18 median 6606/19 median 6606/20 median 6606/21 median 6606/22 median 6606/23 median 6606/24 median 6606/25 median 6606/26 median 6606/28 median 6606/29 median 6606/30 median 6607/01 median 6607/03 median 6607/05 median 6607/07 median 6607/09 median 6607/11 median 6607/12 median 6607/14 median 6607/16 median 6607/21 median 6607/22 median 6607/23 median 6507/24 median 6608/27 median 6108/28 median 6109/01 median 6109/02 median 6109/03 median 6109/05 median 6109/06 median 6109/09 median 6309/14 median 6209/15 median 6209/16 median 6209/17 median 6209/18 median 6209/19 median 6209/21 median 6209/22 median 6209/24 median 62 68 59 09/24
Start66 Current62
Metrics to followUse the info buttons for definitions
ISOi 0.120 Separates extra-base impact from batting average
SLGi 0.319 Tracks total bases per at-bat
K%i 24.9% Shows the swing-and-miss cost of accessing power

Next checkpointRecheck ISO, SLG, and K% after the next 75 plate appearances

Discovery #3 Franklin Arias BOS / AAA / SS
Results Ahead of ToolsMLB #3
Game power ahead of the tool grade

Current extra-base impact is outperforming the verified power expectation

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#2 Median90 Performance76 Trend0.0%
Why the player is here
  • Power 40; game-power evidence sits near the 91th percentile for comparable players
  • ISO is 0.234
Tool vs observed resultsPercentile scale
Contact+27.5 percentile gap
Expected 67 Observed 94
Game Power+58.0 percentile gap
Expected 33 Observed 91
Median Movement 0.0
06/04 median 9006/05 median 9006/06 median 9006/07 median 9006/08 median 8806/09 median 8806/10 median 8906/11 median 8906/12 median 8806/13 median 8906/14 median 8706/15 median 8706/16 median 8706/17 median 8706/18 median 8606/19 median 8606/20 median 8506/21 median 8506/22 median 8606/23 median 8606/24 median 8606/25 median 8706/26 median 8706/28 median 8806/29 median 8806/30 median 8807/01 median 8907/03 median 8807/05 median 8907/07 median 8907/09 median 8907/11 median 8707/12 median 8707/14 median 8707/16 median 8707/21 median 8607/22 median 8507/23 median 8507/24 median 8607/25 median 9207/26 median 7907/27 median 7907/28 median 7907/29 median 8407/30 median 8107/31 median 8208/01 median 8708/03 median 8708/05 median 9008/07 median 9008/08 median 8908/09 median 8908/10 median 8508/11 median 8508/13 median 8508/14 median 8908/16 median 8508/17 median 8508/18 median 8308/19 median 8308/20 median 8308/22 median 8208/23 median 8208/25 median 8208/27 median 8308/28 median 8309/01 median 8209/02 median 8209/03 median 8209/05 median 8209/06 median 8209/09 median 9009/14 median 9009/15 median 9009/16 median 9009/17 median 9009/18 median 8909/19 median 9009/21 median 9009/22 median 9009/24 median 90 94 77 09/24
Start90 Current90
Metrics to followUse the info buttons for definitions
ISOi 0.234 Separates extra-base impact from batting average
SLGi 0.557 Tracks total bases per at-bat
K%i 14.2% Shows the swing-and-miss cost of accessing power

Next checkpointRecheck ISO, SLG, and K% after the next 75 plate appearances

Discovery #4 Kelvis Salcedo DET / Single-A / P
Results Ahead of Tools
Command results ahead of the tool grade

Current strike throwing is outperforming the verified command expectation

High Confidence · 89%
PB Rank#111 Median70 Performance70 Trend0.0%
Why the player is here
  • Command 40; command evidence sits near the 90th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • BB/9 is 2.5
What could change the read
  • A 14.0 K/9 shows the stuff is still missing bats
Tool vs observed resultsPercentile scale
Stuff+37.2 percentile gap
Expected 58 Observed 96
Command+56.7 percentile gap
Expected 33 Observed 90
Median Movement +13.0
06/04 median 5706/05 median 5706/06 median 5706/07 median 5706/08 median 5706/09 median 5706/10 median 5706/11 median 5707/23 median 4507/24 median 4507/25 median 4107/26 median 4107/27 median 4107/28 median 4107/29 median 4107/30 median 4107/31 median 4108/01 median 4108/03 median 4108/05 median 4108/07 median 4108/08 median 4108/09 median 4108/10 median 4108/11 median 4108/13 median 4108/14 median 4108/16 median 4108/17 median 4108/18 median 4108/19 median 4108/20 median 5308/22 median 5308/23 median 5308/25 median 5308/27 median 5508/28 median 5509/01 median 5509/02 median 5509/03 median 5509/05 median 5509/06 median 5509/09 median 7109/14 median 7109/15 median 7109/16 median 7109/17 median 7109/18 median 7009/19 median 7009/21 median 7009/22 median 7009/24 median 70 76 36 09/24
Start57 Current70
Metrics to followUse the info buttons for definitions
BB/9i 2.5 Primary strike-throwing checkpoint
WHIPi 1.10 Tracks total traffic allowed
K-BB%i 30.3% Balances dominance against walks

Next checkpointRecheck BB/9, WHIP, and K-BB% after the next 20 innings

Discovery #5 Jackson Flora SF / AA / P
Volatile ProfileMLB #30
Volatility review

The projection has moved through a wider range than most profiles. Use the history chart and the listed checkpoints before treating one run as a new baseline

Low Confidence · 36%
PB Rank#584 Median68 Performance68 Trend0.0%
Why the player is here
  • The available median history spans 20.0 points
  • Current volatility score is 65
Model outcome range
57 68 79
LowMedianHigh
Median Movement +19.0
08/20 median 4908/22 median 4908/23 median 4908/25 median 4808/27 median 4808/28 median 4809/01 median 4809/02 median 4809/03 median 4809/05 median 5609/06 median 5609/09 median 6409/14 median 6409/15 median 6809/16 median 6809/17 median 6809/18 median 6809/19 median 6809/21 median 6809/22 median 6809/24 median 68 72 44 09/24
Start49 Current68
Metrics to followUse the info buttons for definitions
K/9i 18.0 Use this metric to judge whether the profile is stabilizing
BB/9i 9.0 Use this metric to judge whether the profile is stabilizing
WHIPi 2.00 Use this metric to judge whether the profile is stabilizing

Next checkpointWatch whether the next model runs stabilize or continue the current range