Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Jaison Chourio

CLE · AA · CF · Age 21

Bats S · Throws R
Prospect Score71.0#175 Overall
Baseline65Most likely outcome
Performance58Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor60Lower-end outcome
Baseline65Most likely outcome
Ceiling70High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
58Solid current performance
Offensive impact.784 OPSBalanced offensive output
Contact20.5% KNear expected range
Approach14.2% BBStrong on-base approach

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall55
Hit55
Power40
Run60
Field55
Arm55

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-29

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh94How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection42.2
Projected Range25–60
Arrival Probability74%
Productive Role Probability11%
Player Background
OrganizationCleveland Guardians
LevelAA
PositionCF
BatsS
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 63 Latest recorded 65
70 64.5 59 2026-09-02 · Median 63 2026-09-03 · Median 63 2026-09-05 · Median 63 2026-09-06 · Median 63 2026-09-09 · Median 65 2026-09-14 · Median 65.1 2026-09-15 · Median 65 2026-09-16 · Median 65 2026-09-17 · Median 65 2026-09-18 · Median 65 2026-09-19 · Median 65 2026-09-21 · Median 65 2026-09-22 · Median 65 2026-09-24 · Median 65 2026-09-25 · Median 65 2026-09-29 · Median 65 2026-09-30 · Median 65 2026-10-03 · Median 65 2026-10-04 · Median 65 2026-10-05 · Median 65 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 65

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0565
2026-10-0465
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2026-09-0965
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2026-09-0563
2026-09-0363
2026-09-0263