Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Jake Casey

TOR · High-A · OF

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#1,004
Score56.1
Baseline53
Signal+4.4
Trend+0.2
Floor46
Baseline53
Ceiling61
Confidence61 Risk10 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Jake Casey

TOR · High-A · OF

Toronto Blue Jays · Age at assessment: 23.5 · Bats: L · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,004
Prospect Score56.1
Median53
Performance Signal+4.4
Trend+0.2

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range+0.2
465361
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +4.4

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 51 Latest recorded 53
58 52.5 47 2026-08-16 · Median 51 2026-08-17 · Median 51 2026-08-18 · Median 51 2026-08-19 · Median 51 2026-08-20 · Median 51 2026-08-22 · Median 51 2026-08-23 · Median 51 2026-08-25 · Median 51 2026-08-27 · Median 51 2026-08-28 · Median 51 2026-09-01 · Median 52 2026-09-02 · Median 52 2026-09-03 · Median 52 2026-09-05 · Median 52 2026-09-06 · Median 52 2026-09-09 · Median 53 2026-09-14 · Median 53.5 2026-09-15 · Median 54 2026-09-16 · Median 54 2026-09-17 · Median 53 2026-09-18 · Median 53 2026-09-19 · Median 53 2026-09-21 · Median 53 2026-09-22 · Median 53 2026-09-24 · Median 53 2026-09-25 · Median 53 2026-09-29 · Median 53 2026-09-30 · Median 53 2026-10-03 · Median 53 2026-10-04 · Median 53 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 53

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0453
2026-10-0353
2026-09-3053
2026-09-2953
2026-09-2553
2026-09-2453
2026-09-2253
2026-09-2153
2026-09-1953
2026-09-1853
2026-09-1753
2026-09-1654
2026-09-1554
2026-09-1453.5
2026-09-0953
2026-09-0652
2026-09-0552
2026-09-0352
2026-09-0252
2026-09-0152
2026-08-2851
2026-08-2751
2026-08-2551
2026-08-2351
2026-08-2251
2026-08-2051
2026-08-1951
2026-08-1851
2026-08-1751
2026-08-1651

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 61
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range+0.2
465361
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +4.4

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence61
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection43.5
Projected range25–62
Arrival probability24%
Productive role probability4%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.