Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Nathan Flewelling

TB · High-A · C · Age 20

Bats L · Throws R
Prospect Score72.3#142 Overall
Baseline69Most likely outcome
Performance58Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor64Lower-end outcome
Baseline69Most likely outcome
Ceiling75High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

Performance

Selected evidence
58Solid current performance
Power.208 ISOAbove-average game power
Contact27.2% KNear expected range
Approach14.6% BBStrong on-base approach

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall55
Hit50
Power55
Run35
Field50
Arm50

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-29

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh92How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh3Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection43.1
Projected Range28–59
Arrival Probability53%
Productive Role Probability11%
Player Background
OrganizationTampa Bay Rays
LevelHigh-A
PositionC
BatsL
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 70 Latest recorded 69
74 69.5 65 2026-09-02 · Median 70 2026-09-03 · Median 70 2026-09-05 · Median 70 2026-09-06 · Median 70 2026-09-09 · Median 69 2026-09-14 · Median 69.5 2026-09-15 · Median 69 2026-09-16 · Median 69 2026-09-17 · Median 69 2026-09-18 · Median 69 2026-09-19 · Median 69 2026-09-21 · Median 69 2026-09-22 · Median 69 2026-09-24 · Median 69 2026-09-25 · Median 69 2026-09-29 · Median 69 2026-09-30 · Median 69 2026-10-03 · Median 69 2026-10-04 · Median 69 2026-10-05 · Median 69 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 69

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0569
2026-10-0469
2026-10-0369
2026-09-3069
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2026-09-1469.5
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2026-09-0670
2026-09-0570
2026-09-0370
2026-09-0270