Franklin Arias
Player Assessment
Current model readPerformance is doing more work than the scouting grade in Franklin Arias's current evaluation. The 75 Performance Grade sits 15 points above the 60 scouting foundation, a large enough gap to change the shape of the evaluation. The age-to-level relationship adds development value to the current performance.
Prospect Score & Development
Above average composite evaluation
Baseline
Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.
Confidence
High confidence
Evidence strength, separate from model risk.
Performance context
Model-derived assessmentStrong current production
Scouting Profile
20–80 scouting scaleGrades updated 2026-09-29
Supporting Evidence and What to Watch
Current model assessmentSupporting Evidence
The projection centers on 91, bounded by a 69 Floor and 94 Ceiling. The range is doing almost as much work as the Baseline itself; several materially different outcomes remain plausible. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.
What to Watch
A promotion or sustained success against older competition is the next meaningful checkpoint. At AAA, age-to-level context is already helping the projection. Maintaining the same indicators against stronger competition would strengthen the Baseline more than simply repeating the current line in place.
Model factors and risk context
Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.
Projected Outcome Range
These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.
Forecast
Statistical projectionsNo statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.
Development Trajectory
Recorded Baseline assessmentsLatest recorded Baseline: 91 on · Current Floor 69, Baseline 91, Ceiling 94
The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.
View recorded values
| Date | Baseline | Model version |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 91 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-09 | 91 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-08 | 91 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-07 | 89 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-05 | 89 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-04 | 89 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-03 | 89 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-30 | 89 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-29 | 89 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-25 | 90 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-24 | 90 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-22 | 90 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-21 | 90 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-19 | 90 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-18 | 89 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-17 | 90 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-16 | 90 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-15 | 90 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-14 | 90 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-09 | 90 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-06 | 82 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-05 | 82 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-03 | 82 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-02 | 82 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-01 | 82 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-28 | 83 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-27 | 83 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-25 | 82 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-08-23 | 82 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-22 | 82 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-20 | 83 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-19 | 83 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-18 | 83 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-17 | 85 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-16 | 85 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-14 | 89 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-13 | 85 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-11 | 85 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-10 | 85 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-09 | 89 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-08 | 89 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-07 | 90 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-05 | 90 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-03 | 87 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-01 | 87 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-31 | 82 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-30 | 81 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-29 | 84 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-28 | 79 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-27 | 79 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-26 | 79 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-25 | 92 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-24 | 86 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-23 | 85 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-22 | 85 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-21 | 86 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-16 | 87 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-14 | 87 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-12 | 87 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-11 | 87 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-09 | 89 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-07 | 89 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-05 | 89 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-03 | 88 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-07-01 | 89 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-30 | 88 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-29 | 88 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-28 | 88 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-26 | 87 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-25 | 87 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-24 | 86 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-23 | 86 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-22 | 86 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-21 | 85 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-20 | 85 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-19 | 86 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-18 | 86 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-17 | 87 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-06-16 | 87 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-15 | 87 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-14 | 87 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-13 | 89 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-12 | 88 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-11 | 89 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-10 | 89 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-09 | 88 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-08 | 88 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-07 | 90 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-06 | 90 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-05 | 90 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
| 2026-06-04 | 90 | pbm_145fdb152195dbe4 |
Development Outlook
Upside and risk↑ Upside
The current Ceiling of 94 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.
⚑ Risk Factors
Model Risk Index: 0/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 96/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.