Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Alexander Lopez

TB · DSL · P · Age 21

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score31.9#4,308 Overall
Baseline33Most likely outcome
Performance38Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor22Lower-end outcome
Baseline33Most likely outcome
Ceiling47High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of meaningful developmental upside. Further development toward the ceiling would materially strengthen the profile.

Performance

Selected evidence
38Developing performance profile
Miss ability9.0 K/9Near expected range
Dominance15.0% K-BBBalanced strikeout-to-walk signal
Contact management0.7 HR/9Limits damaging contact

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceDeveloping43How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskDeveloping54Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection48.5
Projected Range24–73
Arrival Probability1%
Productive Role Probability0%
Player Background
OrganizationTampa Bay Rays
LevelDSL
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 34 Latest recorded 33
38 33.5 29 2026-09-02 · Median 34 2026-09-03 · Median 34 2026-09-05 · Median 34 2026-09-06 · Median 34 2026-09-09 · Median 34 2026-09-14 · Median 33.2 2026-09-15 · Median 33 2026-09-16 · Median 33 2026-09-17 · Median 33 2026-09-18 · Median 33 2026-09-19 · Median 33 2026-09-21 · Median 33 2026-09-22 · Median 33 2026-09-24 · Median 33 2026-09-25 · Median 33 2026-09-29 · Median 33 2026-09-30 · Median 33 2026-10-03 · Median 33 2026-10-04 · Median 33 2026-10-05 · Median 33 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 33

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0533
2026-10-0433
2026-10-0333
2026-09-3033
2026-09-2933
2026-09-2533
2026-09-2433
2026-09-2233
2026-09-2133
2026-09-1933
2026-09-1833
2026-09-1733
2026-09-1633
2026-09-1533
2026-09-1433.2
2026-09-0934
2026-09-0634
2026-09-0534
2026-09-0334
2026-09-0234