Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 12, 2026
Public Data · Latest Snapshot

Prospect Movers

See which players gained or lost model ground and which public watch signals deserve a closer look.

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Latest model run

Player Movement

Trend is the percentage change in the derived projection from the prior compatible assessment. The interval varies with available snapshots, so it is not a fixed calendar window. Model Watch items are separate named signals.

Visible signals55
Largest rise+0.3%
Largest fall-0.2%
SnapshotOct 12, 2026
Projection model

Top Risers

Largest positive changes in the current projection snapshot.

3 players
  1. 1
    Nolan Perry TOR · AA · P
    Trend change +0.3%
  2. 2
    Micah Ashman BAL · AA · P
    Trend change +0.3%
  3. 3
    Joseph Dzierwa BAL · AA · P
    Trend change +0.1%
Projection model

Top Fallers

Largest negative changes to monitor in the current projection snapshot.

2 players
  1. 1
    Max Williams MIA · AA · OF
    Trend change -0.2%
  2. 2
    James Tibbs III LAD · AAA · RF
    Trend change -0.2%
Projection model

Breakout Watch

Ranked outside the top 100 with a Breakout Watch index of 65 or higher. The 0–100 index combines current performance, performance versus the model’s scouting input, age-to-level, track record, potential, and confidence. It is a research-priority signal, not a probability or a prediction of success.

25 players
  1. 1
    Mason Peters SEA · High-A · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of current performance that supports the projection. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 76.7/100
  2. 2
    Jirvin Morillo CIN · Single-A · C

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 76.6/100
  3. 3
    Patrick Forbes ARI · High-A · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 76.5/100
  4. 4
    Hector Osorio TEX · High-A · CF

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of current performance that supports the projection. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 76.5/100
  5. 5
    Ty Johnson TB · AAA · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of current performance that supports the projection. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 76.4/100
  6. 6
    Leanders Matos MIL · DSL · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of current performance that supports the projection. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 76.3/100
  7. 7
    Jaiden Lo Re BAL · High-A · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of favorable age-to-level context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 75.9/100
  8. 8
    Cody Bowker PHI · AA · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 75.8/100
  9. 9
    Kelvis Salcedo DET · Single-A · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 75.7/100
  10. 10
    Ethan Anderson BAL · AAA · C

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of favorable age-to-level context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 75.3/100
  11. 11
    Jacob Kmatz LAD · AA · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of current performance that supports the projection. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 75.3/100
  12. 12
    Juan Martinez COL · Single-A · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 75.0/100
  13. 13
    Wilder Dalis COL · High-A · 3B

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 74.2/100
  14. 14
    Jaider Suárez KC · DSL · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 74.2/100
  15. 15
    Xavier Isaac TB · AAA · 1B

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of favorable age-to-level context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 74.1/100
  16. 16
    Javen Coleman TOR · AAA · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 74.0/100
  17. 17
    Braulio Cavero TEX · ACL · OF

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of meaningful developmental upside. Further development toward the ceiling would materially strengthen the profile.

    Breakout Watch index 74.0/100
  18. 18
    Welbyn Francisca CLE · AA · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Breakout Watch index 73.9/100
  19. 19
    Moises Acacio LAD · ACL · IF

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 73.8/100
  20. 20
    Pierce George CWS · AAA · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 73.7/100
  21. 21
    Gary Gill Hill NYM · AAA · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Breakout Watch index 73.6/100
  22. 22
    Dylan Brown BOS · High-A · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 73.6/100
  23. 23
    Ethan Bagwell ATL · High-A · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 73.4/100
  24. 24
    Sebastian Dos Santos STL · Single-A · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of favorable age-to-level context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 73.3/100
  25. 25
    Jarvis Gomez SEA · DSL · OF

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Breakout Watch index 73.2/100
Projection model

Model Watch

Projection signals that warrant a closer look at the next assessment.

25 players
  1. 1
    Sebastian Walcott TEX · AAA · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, current performance that supports the projection, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  2. 2
    Franklin Arias BOS · AAA · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, current performance that supports the projection, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  3. 3
    Eli Willits WSH · AA · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, current performance that supports the projection, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  4. 4
    Ryan Sloan SEA · AA · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, current performance that supports the projection, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  5. 5
    Rainiel Rodriguez STL · AA · C

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, current performance that supports the projection, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  6. 6
    Mike Sirota LAD · AAA · CF

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, current performance that supports the projection. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  7. 7
    Josuar Gonzalez SF · Single-A · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, current performance that supports the projection, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  8. 8
    Theo Gillen TB · AA · OF

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, current performance that supports the projection, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  9. 9
    Eduardo Quintero LAD · AA · CF

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, current performance that supports the projection, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  10. 10
    Alfredo Duno CIN · AA · C

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  11. 11
    Jesús Made MIL · AA · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  12. 12
    Grady Emerson TB · Single-A · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  13. 13
    Emil Morales LAD · High-A · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  14. 14
    Luis Peña MIL · AA · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  15. 15
    Josiah Hartshorn CHC · AA · OF

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, current performance that supports the projection, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  16. 16
    Christian Zazueta LAD · AA · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, current performance that supports the projection. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  17. 17
    Anthony Eyanson BAL · AA · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, current performance that supports the projection. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  18. 18
    Ralphy Velazquez CLE · AAA · 1B

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, current performance that supports the projection, favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  19. 19
    Caden Bodine TB · AAA · C

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of favorable age-to-level context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  20. 20
    Caleb Bonemer CWS · AA · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  21. 21
    JoJo Parker TOR · High-A · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  22. 22
    Vahn Lackey MIN · High-A · C

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  23. 23
    Roch Cholowsky CWS · High-A · SS

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  24. 24
    Sandro Santana STL · AAA · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a strong long-term baseline, current performance that supports the projection, favorable age-to-level context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read
  25. 25
    Cam Caminiti ATL · AA · P

    Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of favorable age-to-level context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

    Model Watch signal Stable model read