Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Matt Duffy

BOS · High-A · P · Age 25

Bats L · Throws R
Prospect Score31.5#4,375 Overall
Baseline36Most likely outcome
Performance38Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor25Lower-end outcome
Baseline36Most likely outcome
Ceiling51High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of meaningful developmental upside. The primary separator is whether the current progress can hold while projection risk remains elevated.

Performance

Selected evidence
38Developing performance profile
Miss ability12.9 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command5.6 BB/9Command risk
Contact management3.2 HR/9Home-run contact is a concern

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceDeveloping44How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskLimited69Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection46.5
Projected Range22–71
Arrival Probability1%
Productive Role Probability0%
Player Background
OrganizationBoston Red Sox
LevelHigh-A
PositionP
BatsL
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 35 Latest recorded 36
41 36 31 2026-09-02 · Median 35 2026-09-03 · Median 35 2026-09-05 · Median 35 2026-09-06 · Median 35 2026-09-09 · Median 36 2026-09-14 · Median 36.4 2026-09-15 · Median 36 2026-09-16 · Median 36 2026-09-17 · Median 36 2026-09-18 · Median 36 2026-09-19 · Median 36 2026-09-21 · Median 36 2026-09-22 · Median 36 2026-09-24 · Median 36 2026-09-25 · Median 36 2026-09-29 · Median 36 2026-09-30 · Median 36 2026-10-03 · Median 36 2026-10-04 · Median 36 2026-10-05 · Median 36 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 36

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0536
2026-10-0436
2026-10-0336
2026-09-3036
2026-09-2936
2026-09-2536
2026-09-2436
2026-09-2236
2026-09-2136
2026-09-1936
2026-09-1836
2026-09-1736
2026-09-1636
2026-09-1536
2026-09-1436.4
2026-09-0936
2026-09-0635
2026-09-0535
2026-09-0335
2026-09-0235