Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Juan Lopez

WSH · FCL · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#4,707
Score29.2
Baseline32
Signal-16.2
Trend0.0
Floor22
Baseline32
Ceiling43
Confidence50 Risk56 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Juan Lopez

WSH · FCL · P

Washington Nationals · Age at assessment: 21.7 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#4,707
Prospect Score29.2
Median32
Performance Signal-16.2
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
223243
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -16.2

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 32 Latest recorded 32
37 32 27 2026-08-16 · Median 32 2026-08-17 · Median 32 2026-08-18 · Median 32 2026-08-19 · Median 32 2026-08-20 · Median 32 2026-08-22 · Median 32 2026-08-23 · Median 31.9 2026-08-25 · Median 31.9 2026-08-27 · Median 32 2026-08-28 · Median 32 2026-09-01 · Median 32 2026-09-02 · Median 32 2026-09-03 · Median 32 2026-09-05 · Median 32 2026-09-06 · Median 32 2026-09-09 · Median 32 2026-09-14 · Median 32.4 2026-09-15 · Median 32 2026-09-16 · Median 32 2026-09-17 · Median 32 2026-09-18 · Median 32 2026-09-19 · Median 32 2026-09-21 · Median 32 2026-09-22 · Median 32 2026-09-24 · Median 32 2026-09-25 · Median 32 2026-09-29 · Median 32 2026-09-30 · Median 32 2026-10-03 · Median 32 2026-10-04 · Median 32 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 32

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0432
2026-10-0332
2026-09-3032
2026-09-2932
2026-09-2532
2026-09-2432
2026-09-2232
2026-09-2132
2026-09-1932
2026-09-1832
2026-09-1732
2026-09-1632
2026-09-1532
2026-09-1432.4
2026-09-0932
2026-09-0632
2026-09-0532
2026-09-0332
2026-09-0232
2026-09-0132
2026-08-2832
2026-08-2732
2026-08-2531.9
2026-08-2331.9
2026-08-2232
2026-08-2032
2026-08-1932
2026-08-1832
2026-08-1732
2026-08-1632

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 50
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 56
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
223243
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -16.2

Profile Context

RiskMedium Risk · 56
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence50
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection43.8
Projected range19–69
Arrival probability1%
Productive role probability0%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.