Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Matt O'Neill

ARI · AAA · C

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

Rank#5,837
Score21.4
Baseline22
Signal-23.4
Trend+0.5
Floor20
Baseline22
Ceiling31
Confidence60 Risk29 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Matt O'Neill

ARI · AAA · C

Arizona Diamondbacks · Age at assessment: 29.1 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

PB Rank#5,837
Prospect Score21.4
Median22
Performance Signal-23.4
Trend+0.5

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range+0.5
202231
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -23.4

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 22 Latest recorded 22
27 21 15 2026-08-11 · Median 22 2026-08-13 · Median 22 2026-08-14 · Median 22 2026-08-16 · Median 21 2026-08-17 · Median 21 2026-08-18 · Median 21 2026-08-19 · Median 21 2026-08-20 · Median 21.3 2026-08-27 · Median 19 2026-08-28 · Median 19 2026-09-01 · Median 19 2026-09-02 · Median 19 2026-09-03 · Median 19 2026-09-05 · Median 19 2026-09-06 · Median 19 2026-09-09 · Median 21.8 2026-09-14 · Median 22.2 2026-09-15 · Median 22 2026-09-16 · Median 22 2026-09-17 · Median 22 2026-09-18 · Median 22 2026-09-19 · Median 22 2026-09-21 · Median 22 2026-09-22 · Median 22 2026-09-24 · Median 22 2026-09-25 · Median 22 2026-09-29 · Median 22 2026-09-30 · Median 22 2026-10-03 · Median 22 2026-10-04 · Median 22 2026-08-11 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 22

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0422
2026-10-0322
2026-09-3022
2026-09-2922
2026-09-2522
2026-09-2422
2026-09-2222
2026-09-2122
2026-09-1922
2026-09-1822
2026-09-1722
2026-09-1622
2026-09-1522
2026-09-1422.2
2026-09-0921.8
2026-09-0619
2026-09-0519
2026-09-0319
2026-09-0219
2026-09-0119
2026-08-2819
2026-08-2719
2026-08-2021.3
2026-08-1921
2026-08-1821
2026-08-1721
2026-08-1621
2026-08-1422
2026-08-1322
2026-08-1122

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 60
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 29
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range+0.5
202231
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -23.4

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 29
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence60
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection33.9
Projected range17–51
Arrival probability5%
Productive role probability0%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.