Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Tyler Santana

CHC · AAA · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

Rank#6,054
Score18.6
Baseline21
Signal-42.0
Trend0.0
Floor20
Baseline21
Ceiling29
Confidence60 Risk37 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Tyler Santana

CHC · AAA · P

Chicago Cubs · Age at assessment: 28.4 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

PB Rank#6,054
Prospect Score18.6
Median21
Performance Signal-42.0
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
202129
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -42.0

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 15 Latest recorded 21
27 19 11 2026-08-16 · Median 15 2026-08-17 · Median 15 2026-08-18 · Median 15 2026-08-19 · Median 15 2026-08-20 · Median 18 2026-08-22 · Median 18 2026-08-23 · Median 17.5 2026-08-25 · Median 17.5 2026-08-27 · Median 17.5 2026-08-28 · Median 17.5 2026-09-01 · Median 18 2026-09-02 · Median 18 2026-09-03 · Median 18 2026-09-05 · Median 18 2026-09-06 · Median 18 2026-09-09 · Median 22.9 2026-09-14 · Median 22.9 2026-09-15 · Median 23 2026-09-16 · Median 23 2026-09-17 · Median 23 2026-09-18 · Median 22 2026-09-19 · Median 22 2026-09-21 · Median 21 2026-09-22 · Median 21 2026-09-24 · Median 21 2026-09-25 · Median 21 2026-09-29 · Median 21 2026-09-30 · Median 21 2026-10-03 · Median 21 2026-10-04 · Median 21 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 21

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0421
2026-10-0321
2026-09-3021
2026-09-2921
2026-09-2521
2026-09-2421
2026-09-2221
2026-09-2121
2026-09-1922
2026-09-1822
2026-09-1723
2026-09-1623
2026-09-1523
2026-09-1422.9
2026-09-0922.9
2026-09-0618
2026-09-0518
2026-09-0318
2026-09-0218
2026-09-0118
2026-08-2817.5
2026-08-2717.5
2026-08-2517.5
2026-08-2317.5
2026-08-2218
2026-08-2018
2026-08-1915
2026-08-1815
2026-08-1715
2026-08-1615

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 60
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 37
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
202129
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -42.0

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 37
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence60
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection36.2
Projected range12–61
Arrival probability4%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.