Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Cristian Alvarado

SF · AAA · P · Age 32

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score11.4#6,401 Overall
Baseline14Most likely outcome
Performance49Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor20Lower-end outcome
Baseline14Most likely outcome
Ceiling31High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of meaningful developmental upside. Further development toward the ceiling would materially strengthen the profile.

Performance

Selected evidence
49Developing performance profile
Miss ability11.7 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command3.9 BB/9Near expected range
Contact management1.0 HR/9Near expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceDeveloping46How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskDeveloping46Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection48.9
Projected Range24–74
Arrival Probability7%
Productive Role Probability1%
Player Background
OrganizationSan Francisco Giants
LevelAAA
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 7 Latest recorded 14 Change +7.1
18 10 2 2026-09-02 · Median 6.9 2026-09-03 · Median 7.4 2026-09-05 · Median 7.4 2026-09-06 · Median 7.4 2026-09-09 · Median 12.4 2026-09-14 · Median 12.5 2026-09-15 · Median 12.6 2026-09-16 · Median 13 2026-09-17 · Median 13 2026-09-18 · Median 13 2026-09-19 · Median 13 2026-09-21 · Median 14 2026-09-22 · Median 14 2026-09-24 · Median 14 2026-09-25 · Median 14 2026-09-29 · Median 14 2026-09-30 · Median 14 2026-10-03 · Median 14 2026-10-04 · Median 14 2026-10-05 · Median 14 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 14

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0514
2026-10-0414
2026-10-0314
2026-09-3014
2026-09-2914
2026-09-2514
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2026-09-2114
2026-09-1913
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2026-09-1512.6
2026-09-1412.5
2026-09-0912.4
2026-09-067.4
2026-09-057.4
2026-09-037.4
2026-09-026.9