Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 25, 2026 · 2:59 PM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Felix Arronde

KC · AA · P

Kansas City Royals · Age at assessment: 23.4 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Tools Ahead of Results
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Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Stuff not yet translating

The verified pitch-quality expectation is running ahead of current bat-missing results

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#1,048
Prospect Score56
Median55
Performance36
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Best pitch grade 55; dominance evidence sits near the 14th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • K/9 is 7.8

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Stuff-44.2 percentile gap
Expected 58 Observed 14
Command-21.6 percentile gap
Expected 50 Observed 28

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 52 Latest recorded 55
59 52 45 2026-06-25 · Median 52 2026-06-26 · Median 52 2026-06-28 · Median 52 2026-06-29 · Median 52 2026-06-30 · Median 52 2026-07-01 · Median 52 2026-07-03 · Median 55 2026-07-05 · Median 52 2026-07-07 · Median 52 2026-07-09 · Median 52 2026-07-11 · Median 52 2026-07-12 · Median 52 2026-07-14 · Median 52 2026-07-16 · Median 52 2026-07-21 · Median 52 2026-07-22 · Median 52 2026-07-23 · Median 51 2026-07-24 · Median 52 2026-07-25 · Median 52 2026-07-26 · Median 51 2026-07-27 · Median 51 2026-07-28 · Median 51 2026-07-29 · Median 50 2026-07-30 · Median 50 2026-07-31 · Median 50 2026-08-01 · Median 50 2026-08-03 · Median 49 2026-08-05 · Median 49 2026-08-07 · Median 49 2026-08-08 · Median 49 2026-08-09 · Median 49 2026-08-10 · Median 49 2026-08-11 · Median 49 2026-08-13 · Median 49 2026-08-14 · Median 49 2026-08-16 · Median 49 2026-08-17 · Median 49 2026-08-18 · Median 49 2026-08-19 · Median 49 2026-08-20 · Median 49 2026-08-22 · Median 49 2026-08-23 · Median 49.2 2026-08-25 · Median 49.2 2026-08-27 · Median 55 2026-08-28 · Median 55 2026-09-01 · Median 55 2026-09-02 · Median 55 2026-09-03 · Median 55 2026-09-05 · Median 55 2026-09-06 · Median 55 2026-09-09 · Median 55 2026-09-14 · Median 55 2026-09-15 · Median 55 2026-09-16 · Median 55 2026-09-17 · Median 55 2026-09-18 · Median 55 2026-09-19 · Median 55 2026-09-21 · Median 55 2026-09-22 · Median 55 2026-09-24 · Median 55 2026-09-25 · Median 55 2026-06-25 2026-09-25

2026-09-25 · Median 55

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2555
2026-09-2455
2026-09-2255
2026-09-2155
2026-09-1955
2026-09-1855
2026-09-1755
2026-09-1655
2026-09-1555
2026-09-1455
2026-09-0955
2026-09-0655
2026-09-0555
2026-09-0355
2026-09-0255
2026-09-0155
2026-08-2855
2026-08-2755
2026-08-2549.2
2026-08-2349.2
2026-08-2249
2026-08-2049
2026-08-1949
2026-08-1849
2026-08-1749
2026-08-1649
2026-08-1449
2026-08-1349
2026-08-1149
2026-08-1049
2026-08-0949
2026-08-0849
2026-08-0749
2026-08-0549
2026-08-0349
2026-08-0150
2026-07-3150
2026-07-3050
2026-07-2950
2026-07-2851
2026-07-2751
2026-07-2651
2026-07-2552
2026-07-2452
2026-07-2351
2026-07-2252
2026-07-2152
2026-07-1652
2026-07-1452
2026-07-1252
2026-07-1152
2026-07-0952
2026-07-0752
2026-07-0552
2026-07-0355
2026-07-0152
2026-06-3052
2026-06-2952
2026-06-2852
2026-06-2652
2026-06-2552

Metrics to follow

K/9 7.8

Primary bat-missing indicator

Definition

Strikeouts recorded per nine innings pitched

K-BB% 7.6%

Separates dominance from walk cost

Definition

Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, a compact measure of pitcher dominance and control

BB/9 4.6

Shows whether control is limiting the arsenal

Definition

Walks allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower is generally better

Next checkpointRecheck K/9, K-BB%, and BB/9 after the next 20 innings

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G24
IP105.1
ERA6.49
WHIP1.66
K/97.8
BB/94.6
K-BB%7.6%

Northwest Arkansas Naturals · AA · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
495560
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 36

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 20
MLB / Model Watch
Confidence92
TypePitcher

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production38.6
Historical 80% error band16–61
MLB arrival in 3 years11%
Productive MLB role in 3 years1%

The next-season score assumes at least 20 IP. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Fastball icon
Fastball55Avg
Slider icon
Slider50Avg
Changeup icon
Changeup55Avg
Command icon
Control50Avg
Overall icon
Overall45Fringe

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileFastballSliderChangeupCommand20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Pitch Mix

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels119.0031014.023141448112.217.07
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
2026Northwest Arkansas NaturalsAA676.4924220105.112181762554911.667.78
2025Quad Cities River BanditsHigh-A572.8026240128.29745409421011.087.06
2024Columbia FirefliesSingle-A482.9423211110.18144369321031.028.40
2023Columbia FirefliesSingle-A103.722209.288426121.4511.17
2023ACL RoyalsACL111.85115039.028128315461.1010.62
20232 teams · TotalAll levels212.22137048.2362012521581.1710.73
2022DSL KC GlassDSL186.941212035.0403127413501.5112.86
2021DSL Royals BlueDSL223.0682017.217186010181.539.17
2021DSL Royals WhiteDSL0211.373006.19981462.058.53
20212 teams · TotalAll levels245.25112024.0262714114241.679.00

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-25T14:54:05.

More Kansas City Royals profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.