Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 25, 2026 · 2:59 PM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Jamie Arnold

ATH · AAA · P IL(7-Day)

Athletics · Age at assessment: 22.5 · Bats: L · Throws: L

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Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Stuff not yet translating

The verified pitch-quality expectation is running ahead of current bat-missing results

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#89
Prospect Score75
Median71
Performance61
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Best pitch grade 65; dominance evidence sits near the 56th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • K/9 is 9.9

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Stuff-19.1 percentile gap
Expected 75 Observed 56
Command-14.7 percentile gap
Expected 58 Observed 44

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 73 Latest recorded 71
77 69.5 62 2026-06-04 · Median 73 2026-06-05 · Median 73 2026-06-06 · Median 73 2026-06-07 · Median 73 2026-06-08 · Median 73 2026-06-09 · Median 73 2026-06-10 · Median 73 2026-06-11 · Median 73 2026-06-12 · Median 73 2026-06-13 · Median 73 2026-06-14 · Median 73 2026-06-15 · Median 73 2026-06-16 · Median 73 2026-06-17 · Median 73 2026-06-18 · Median 73 2026-06-19 · Median 73 2026-06-20 · Median 73 2026-06-21 · Median 73 2026-06-22 · Median 73 2026-06-23 · Median 73 2026-06-24 · Median 73 2026-06-25 · Median 73 2026-06-26 · Median 73 2026-06-28 · Median 73 2026-06-29 · Median 73 2026-06-30 · Median 73 2026-07-01 · Median 73 2026-07-03 · Median 71 2026-07-05 · Median 71 2026-07-07 · Median 71 2026-07-09 · Median 71 2026-07-11 · Median 71 2026-07-12 · Median 71 2026-07-14 · Median 71 2026-07-16 · Median 71 2026-07-21 · Median 71 2026-07-22 · Median 71 2026-07-23 · Median 71 2026-07-24 · Median 71 2026-07-25 · Median 71 2026-07-26 · Median 71 2026-07-27 · Median 71 2026-07-28 · Median 71 2026-07-29 · Median 71 2026-07-30 · Median 71 2026-07-31 · Median 71 2026-08-01 · Median 71 2026-08-03 · Median 71 2026-08-05 · Median 71 2026-08-07 · Median 72 2026-08-08 · Median 72 2026-08-09 · Median 72 2026-08-10 · Median 72 2026-08-11 · Median 72 2026-08-13 · Median 72 2026-08-14 · Median 72 2026-08-16 · Median 68 2026-08-17 · Median 68 2026-08-18 · Median 68 2026-08-19 · Median 68 2026-08-20 · Median 68 2026-08-22 · Median 68 2026-08-23 · Median 68.1 2026-08-25 · Median 68.1 2026-08-27 · Median 68 2026-08-28 · Median 68 2026-09-01 · Median 66 2026-09-02 · Median 66 2026-09-03 · Median 66 2026-09-05 · Median 66 2026-09-06 · Median 66 2026-09-09 · Median 72 2026-09-14 · Median 72.2 2026-09-15 · Median 71 2026-09-16 · Median 71 2026-09-17 · Median 71 2026-09-18 · Median 71 2026-09-19 · Median 71 2026-09-21 · Median 71 2026-09-22 · Median 71 2026-09-24 · Median 71 2026-09-25 · Median 71 2026-06-04 2026-09-25

2026-09-25 · Median 71

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2571
2026-09-2471
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2026-09-2171
2026-09-1971
2026-09-1871
2026-09-1771
2026-09-1671
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2026-09-1472.2
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2026-09-0666
2026-09-0566
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2026-09-0166
2026-08-2868
2026-08-2768
2026-08-2568.1
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2026-08-1968
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2026-08-0872
2026-08-0772
2026-08-0571
2026-08-0371
2026-08-0171
2026-07-3171
2026-07-3071
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2026-07-2171
2026-07-1671
2026-07-1471
2026-07-1271
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2026-07-0771
2026-07-0571
2026-07-0371
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2026-06-0873
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2026-06-0673
2026-06-0573
2026-06-0473

Metrics to follow

K/9 9.9

Primary bat-missing indicator

Definition

Strikeouts recorded per nine innings pitched

K-BB% 15.0%

Separates dominance from walk cost

Definition

Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, a compact measure of pitcher dominance and control

BB/9 4.0

Shows whether control is limiting the arsenal

Definition

Walks allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower is generally better

Next checkpointRecheck K/9, K-BB%, and BB/9 after the next 20 innings

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G25
IP118.1
ERA3.50
WHIP1.46
K/99.9
BB/94.0
K-BB%15.0%

2 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
667176
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 61

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 6
MLB / Model WatchMLB #56 MLB Top 100
Confidence94
TypePitcher

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production47.8
Historical 80% error band25–71
MLB arrival in 3 years63%
Productive MLB role in 3 years13%

The next-season score assumes at least 20 IP. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Fastball icon
Fastball60Above Avg
Slider icon
Slider65Plus
Changeup icon
Changeup50Avg
Command icon
Control55Avg
Overall icon
Overall55Avg

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileFastballSliderChangeupCommand20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Slider-Driven

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels111.802205.06110351.809.00
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
2026Las Vegas AviatorsAAA111.802205.06110351.809.00
2026Midland RockHoundsAA653.5723230113.111558459491251.459.93
20262 teams · TotalAll levels763.5025250118.112159469521301.469.89

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-25T14:54:05.

Checklist appearances

  • 2025 Bowman Draft · First Bowman · First autograph
Explore the checklist tool

More Athletics profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.