Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 25, 2026 · 2:59 PM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Mavis Graves

PHI · AA · P

Philadelphia Phillies · Age at assessment: 22.8 · Bats: L · Throws: L

Results Ahead of Tools
Compare
Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Dominance ahead of the tool grades

Current strikeout and K-BB results are outperforming the verified pitch-quality expectation

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#307
Prospect Score67
Median63
Performance60
Trend-0.1%

Why the player is here

  • Best pitch grade 55; dominance evidence sits near the 93th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • K/9 is 13.7

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Stuff+34.9 percentile gap
Expected 58 Observed 93
Command+9.7 percentile gap
Expected 42 Observed 51

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 64 Latest recorded 63
69 55 41 2026-06-04 · Median 64 2026-06-05 · Median 65 2026-06-06 · Median 65 2026-06-07 · Median 65 2026-06-08 · Median 65 2026-06-09 · Median 65 2026-06-10 · Median 65 2026-06-11 · Median 62 2026-06-12 · Median 62 2026-06-13 · Median 62 2026-06-14 · Median 62 2026-06-15 · Median 62 2026-06-16 · Median 62 2026-06-17 · Median 62 2026-06-18 · Median 61 2026-06-19 · Median 61 2026-06-20 · Median 61 2026-06-21 · Median 61 2026-06-22 · Median 61 2026-06-23 · Median 61 2026-06-24 · Median 61 2026-06-25 · Median 57 2026-06-26 · Median 57 2026-06-28 · Median 57 2026-06-29 · Median 57 2026-06-30 · Median 57 2026-07-01 · Median 57 2026-07-03 · Median 58 2026-07-05 · Median 58 2026-07-07 · Median 58 2026-07-09 · Median 58 2026-07-11 · Median 55 2026-07-12 · Median 55 2026-07-14 · Median 55 2026-07-16 · Median 54 2026-07-21 · Median 54 2026-07-22 · Median 54 2026-07-23 · Median 54 2026-07-24 · Median 55 2026-07-25 · Median 55 2026-07-26 · Median 55 2026-07-27 · Median 55 2026-07-28 · Median 55 2026-07-29 · Median 55 2026-07-30 · Median 45 2026-07-31 · Median 45 2026-08-01 · Median 45 2026-08-03 · Median 47 2026-08-05 · Median 47 2026-08-07 · Median 48 2026-08-08 · Median 47 2026-08-09 · Median 47 2026-08-10 · Median 47 2026-08-11 · Median 48 2026-08-13 · Median 48 2026-08-14 · Median 48 2026-08-16 · Median 49 2026-08-17 · Median 49 2026-08-18 · Median 49 2026-08-19 · Median 49 2026-08-20 · Median 59 2026-08-22 · Median 57 2026-08-23 · Median 57.4 2026-08-25 · Median 57.4 2026-08-27 · Median 57 2026-08-28 · Median 57 2026-09-01 · Median 58 2026-09-02 · Median 59 2026-09-03 · Median 59 2026-09-05 · Median 59 2026-09-06 · Median 59 2026-09-09 · Median 62 2026-09-14 · Median 62.5 2026-09-15 · Median 63 2026-09-16 · Median 63 2026-09-17 · Median 62 2026-09-18 · Median 62 2026-09-19 · Median 63 2026-09-21 · Median 63 2026-09-22 · Median 63 2026-09-24 · Median 63 2026-09-25 · Median 63 2026-06-04 2026-09-25

2026-09-25 · Median 63

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2563
2026-09-2463
2026-09-2263
2026-09-2163
2026-09-1963
2026-09-1862
2026-09-1762
2026-09-1663
2026-09-1563
2026-09-1462.5
2026-09-0962
2026-09-0659
2026-09-0559
2026-09-0359
2026-09-0259
2026-09-0158
2026-08-2857
2026-08-2757
2026-08-2557.4
2026-08-2357.4
2026-08-2257
2026-08-2059
2026-08-1949
2026-08-1849
2026-08-1749
2026-08-1649
2026-08-1448
2026-08-1348
2026-08-1148
2026-08-1047
2026-08-0947
2026-08-0847
2026-08-0748
2026-08-0547
2026-08-0347
2026-08-0145
2026-07-3145
2026-07-3045
2026-07-2955
2026-07-2855
2026-07-2755
2026-07-2655
2026-07-2555
2026-07-2455
2026-07-2354
2026-07-2254
2026-07-2154
2026-07-1654
2026-07-1455
2026-07-1255
2026-07-1155
2026-07-0958
2026-07-0758
2026-07-0558
2026-07-0358
2026-07-0157
2026-06-3057
2026-06-2957
2026-06-2857
2026-06-2657
2026-06-2557
2026-06-2461
2026-06-2361
2026-06-2261
2026-06-2161
2026-06-2061
2026-06-1961
2026-06-1861
2026-06-1762
2026-06-1662
2026-06-1562
2026-06-1462
2026-06-1362
2026-06-1262
2026-06-1162
2026-06-1065
2026-06-0965
2026-06-0865
2026-06-0765
2026-06-0665
2026-06-0565
2026-06-0464

Metrics to follow

K/9 13.7

Primary bat-missing indicator

Definition

Strikeouts recorded per nine innings pitched

K-BB% 22.0%

Separates dominance from walk cost

Definition

Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, a compact measure of pitcher dominance and control

BB/9 5.0

Shows whether control is limiting the arsenal

Definition

Walks allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower is generally better

Next checkpointRecheck K/9, K-BB%, and BB/9 after the next 20 innings

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G30
IP77.0
ERA3.86
WHIP1.34
K/913.7
BB/95.0
K-BB%22.0%

2 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range-0.1%
586367
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 60

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
MLB / Model Watch66 signal Top 100 Watch
Confidence91
TypePitcher

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production46.8
Historical 80% error band22–72
MLB arrival in 3 years47%
Productive MLB role in 3 years8%

The next-season score assumes at least 20 IP. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Fastball icon
Fastball50Avg
Slider icon
Slider55Avg
Changeup icon
Changeup50Avg
Command icon
Control45Fringe
Overall icon
Overall40Developmental

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileFastballSliderChangeupCommand20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Pitch Mix

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels200.005007.061003131.2916.71
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
2026Reading Fightin PhilsAA200.96140118.21042014311.2914.95
2026Jersey Shore BlueClawsHigh-A174.781616058.15038311229861.3513.27
20262 teams · TotalAll levels373.863016177.060423312431171.3413.68
2025Jersey Shore BlueClawsHigh-A674.412121081.27451406511031.5311.35
2024Clearwater ThreshersSingle-A763.641816084.07741343361171.3512.54
2023FCL PhilliesFCL047.681111034.0353329429451.8811.91

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-25T14:54:05.

Checklist appearances

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome · First Bowman · First autograph
Explore the checklist tool

More Philadelphia Phillies profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.