Prospect Baseline Profile

Josiah Hartshorn

CHC · AA · OF

Prospect Baseline Rank #15

Player Assessment

Current model read

The clearest reason to pay attention to Josiah Hartshorn is the separation between what was expected and what he is currently producing. The 73 Performance Grade sits 18 points above the 55 scouting foundation, a large enough gap to change the shape of the evaluation. The age-to-level relationship adds development value to the current performance.

Prospect Score & Development

69/100

Solid composite evaluation

Baseline

86/100

Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.

Confidence

94/100

High confidence

Evidence strength, separate from model risk.

Performance context

Model-derived assessment

73/100

Solid current production

OPS

Offensive impact.925 OPSStrong overall offensive impact

Contact19.4% KNear expected range

BB%

Approach16.2% BBStrong on-base approach

Scouting Profile

20–80 scouting scale

Overall

Hit

Power

Run

Field

Arm

Grades updated 2026-09-29

Supporting Evidence and What to Watch

Current model assessment

Supporting Evidence

The projection centers on 86, bounded by a 67 Floor and 89 Ceiling. That broader band is a reminder that the Baseline is strong without being fully settled. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.

What to Watch

A promotion or sustained success against older competition is the next meaningful checkpoint. At AA, age-to-level context is already helping the projection. Maintaining the same indicators against stronger competition would strengthen the Baseline more than simply repeating the current line in place.

Model factors and risk context

Model Risk Index0

Age to level76

Track record77

Data quality100

Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.

Projected Outcome Range

Floor 67Baseline 86Ceiling 89

These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.

Forecast

Statistical projections

No statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.

Development Trajectory

Recorded Baseline assessments

Latest recorded Baseline: 86 on 2026-10-12 · Current Floor 67, Baseline 86, Ceiling 89

Recorded history Current Floor–Ceiling range

The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.

View recorded values

Date	Baseline	Model version
2026-10-12	86	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-09	86	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-08	86	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-07	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-05	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-04	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-03	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-30	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-29	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-25	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-24	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-22	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-21	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-19	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-18	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-17	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-16	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-15	84	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-14	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-09	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-06	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-05	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-03	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-02	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-01	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-28	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-27	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-25	78	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-08-23	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-22	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-20	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-19	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-18	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-17	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-16	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-14	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-13	79	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-11	79	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-10	79	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-09	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-08	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-07	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-05	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-03	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-01	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-31	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-30	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-29	74	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-28	74	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-27	74	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-26	74	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-25	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-24	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-23	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-22	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-21	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-16	74	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-14	74	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-12	74	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-11	74	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-09	73	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-07	73	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-05	74	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-03	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-01	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-30	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-29	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-28	82	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-26	82	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-25	82	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-24	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-23	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-22	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-21	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-20	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-19	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-18	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-17	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-16	81	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-15	81	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-14	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-13	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-12	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-11	78	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-10	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-09	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-08	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-07	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-06	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-05	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-04	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4

Development Outlook

Upside and risk

↑ Upside

The current Ceiling of 89 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.

⚑ Risk Factors

Model Risk Index: 0/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 94/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.