Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Cole Hertzler

HOU · AA · P

Houston Astros · Age at assessment: 23.3 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Tools Translating
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Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Command tool translating

Current strike-throwing results are broadly aligned with the verified command expectation

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#426
Prospect Score64
Median58
Performance56
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Command 50; command evidence sits near the 60th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • BB/9 is 4.9

What could change the read

  • A 11.1 K/9 shows the stuff is still missing bats

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Stuff+3.5 percentile gap
Expected 67 Observed 70
Command+9.6 percentile gap
Expected 50 Observed 60

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 57 Latest recorded 58
63 52 41 2026-06-04 · Median 57 2026-06-05 · Median 56 2026-06-06 · Median 56 2026-06-07 · Median 56 2026-06-08 · Median 56 2026-06-09 · Median 56 2026-06-10 · Median 56 2026-06-11 · Median 56 2026-06-12 · Median 56 2026-06-13 · Median 45 2026-06-14 · Median 45 2026-06-15 · Median 45 2026-06-16 · Median 45 2026-06-17 · Median 45 2026-06-18 · Median 45 2026-06-19 · Median 45 2026-06-20 · Median 45 2026-06-21 · Median 45 2026-06-22 · Median 45 2026-06-23 · Median 45 2026-06-24 · Median 45 2026-06-25 · Median 55 2026-06-26 · Median 55 2026-06-28 · Median 55 2026-06-29 · Median 55 2026-06-30 · Median 55 2026-07-01 · Median 55 2026-07-03 · Median 56 2026-07-05 · Median 56 2026-07-07 · Median 56 2026-07-09 · Median 56 2026-07-11 · Median 56 2026-07-12 · Median 56 2026-07-14 · Median 53 2026-07-16 · Median 53 2026-07-21 · Median 53 2026-07-22 · Median 53 2026-07-23 · Median 51 2026-07-24 · Median 51 2026-07-25 · Median 51 2026-07-26 · Median 51 2026-07-27 · Median 51 2026-07-28 · Median 51 2026-07-29 · Median 51 2026-07-30 · Median 50 2026-07-31 · Median 50 2026-08-01 · Median 50 2026-08-03 · Median 50 2026-08-05 · Median 50 2026-08-07 · Median 53 2026-08-08 · Median 53 2026-08-09 · Median 53 2026-08-10 · Median 53 2026-08-11 · Median 53 2026-08-13 · Median 49 2026-08-14 · Median 49 2026-08-16 · Median 48 2026-08-17 · Median 48 2026-08-18 · Median 48 2026-08-19 · Median 50 2026-08-20 · Median 50 2026-08-22 · Median 50 2026-08-23 · Median 50.4 2026-08-25 · Median 50.4 2026-08-27 · Median 56 2026-08-28 · Median 56 2026-09-01 · Median 56 2026-09-02 · Median 56 2026-09-03 · Median 56 2026-09-05 · Median 56 2026-09-06 · Median 56 2026-09-09 · Median 59 2026-09-14 · Median 59 2026-09-15 · Median 59 2026-09-16 · Median 59 2026-09-17 · Median 59 2026-09-18 · Median 59 2026-09-19 · Median 59 2026-09-21 · Median 58 2026-09-22 · Median 58 2026-09-24 · Median 58 2026-06-04 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 · Median 58

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2458
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Metrics to follow

BB/9 4.9

Primary strike-throwing checkpoint

Definition

Walks allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower is generally better

WHIP 1.20

Tracks total traffic allowed

Definition

Walks and hits allowed per inning pitched. Lower is generally better

K-BB% 16.4%

Balances dominance against walks

Definition

Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, a compact measure of pitcher dominance and control

Next checkpointRecheck BB/9, WHIP, and K-BB% after the next 20 innings

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G22
IP83.2
ERA3.44
WHIP1.18
K/911.1
BB/94.9
K-BB%16.4%

2 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
545863
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 56

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
MLB / Model Watch
Confidence91
TypePitcher

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production46.3
Historical 80% error band24–69
MLB arrival in 3 years31%
Productive MLB role in 3 years4%

The next-season score assumes at least 20 IP. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Fastball icon
Fastball50Avg
Slider icon
Slider50Avg
Curveball icon
Curveball45Fringe
Changeup icon
Changeup60Above Avg
Command icon
Control50Avg
Overall icon
Overall40Developmental

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileFastballSliderCurveballChangeupCommand20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Changeup Feel

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels003.182205.25221371.4111.12
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
2026Corpus Christi HooksAA134.201211040.2282719921391.208.63
2026Asheville TouristsHigh-A122.721010043.0251313425641.1613.40
20262 teams · TotalAll levels253.442221083.253403213461031.1811.08
2025Fayetteville WoodpeckersSingle-A001.1344016.0123206221.1312.38
2024Fayetteville WoodpeckersSingle-A001.802005.05111361.6010.80

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-24T08:35:32.

More Houston Astros profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.