Prospect Baseline Profile

Luis Hernández

SF · Single-A · SS

Prospect Baseline Rank #31

Player Assessment

Current model read

The development context matters here: Luis Hernández is handling a level that is aggressive for his age. The age-to-level relationship adds development value to the current performance.

Prospect Score & Development

67/100

Solid composite evaluation

Baseline

75/100

Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.

Confidence

90/100

High confidence

Evidence strength, separate from model risk.

Performance context

Model-derived assessment

58/100

Solid current production

ISO

Power.190 ISOAbove-average game power

Contact20.6% KNear expected range

OBP

On-base foundation.350 OBPNear expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scouting scale

Overall

Hit

Power

Run

Field

Arm

Grades updated 2026-09-29

Supporting Evidence and What to Watch

Current model assessment

Supporting Evidence

Prospect Baseline places the central outcome at 75, with a modeled range from 58 to 78. The width matters: the upside is real, but the profile still has enough unresolved information to produce materially different outcomes. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.

What to Watch

The development advantage is already being rewarded, so the next question is how well the skills travel upward. At Single-A, age-to-level context is already helping the projection. Maintaining the same indicators against stronger competition would strengthen the Baseline more than simply repeating the current line in place.

Model factors and risk context

Model Risk Index3

Age to level75

Track record60

Data quality100

Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.

Projected Outcome Range

Floor 58Baseline 75Ceiling 78

These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.

Forecast

Statistical projections

No statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.

Development Trajectory

Recorded Baseline assessments

Latest recorded Baseline: 75 on 2026-10-12 · Current Floor 58, Baseline 75, Ceiling 78

Recorded history Current Floor–Ceiling range

The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.

View recorded values

Date	Baseline	Model version
2026-10-12	75	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-09	75	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-08	75	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-07	74	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-05	74	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-04	74	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-03	74	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-30	74	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-29	74	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-25	73	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-24	73	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-22	73	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-21	73	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-19	73	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-18	73	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-17	73	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-16	73	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-15	73	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-14	73	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-09	73	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-06	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-05	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-03	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-02	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-01	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-28	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-27	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-25	81	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-08-23	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-22	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-20	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-19	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-18	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-17	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-16	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-14	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-13	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-11	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-10	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-09	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-08	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-07	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-05	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-03	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-01	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-31	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-30	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-29	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-28	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-27	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-26	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-25	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-24	74	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-23	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-22	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-21	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-16	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-14	69	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-12	69	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-11	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-09	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-07	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-05	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-03	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-01	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-30	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-29	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-28	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-26	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-25	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-24	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-23	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-22	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-21	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-20	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-19	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-18	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-17	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-16	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-15	71	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-14	71	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-13	71	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-12	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-11	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-10	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-09	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-08	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-07	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-06	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-05	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-04	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4

Development Outlook

Upside and risk

↑ Upside

The current Ceiling of 78 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.

⚑ Risk Factors

Model Risk Index: 3/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 90/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.