Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 12, 2026
Prospect Baseline Profile

Patrick Forbes

ARI · High-A · P

Prospect Baseline Rank #122

Player Assessment

Current model read

Performance is doing more work than the scouting grade in Patrick Forbes's current evaluation. The 69 Performance Grade sits 24 points above the 45 scouting foundation, a large enough gap to change the shape of the evaluation.

Prospect Score & Development

59/100

Developing composite evaluation

Baseline

69/100

Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.

Confidence

80/100

High confidence

Evidence strength, separate from model risk.

Performance context

Model-derived assessment
69/100

Solid current production

K/9
Miss ability12.4 K/9Strong strikeout signal
K-BB%
Dominance29.3% K-BBStrong strikeout-to-walk foundation
WHIP
Traffic prevention0.91 WHIPStrong traffic prevention

Scouting Profile

20–80 scouting scale
Overall
45
Fastball
60
Slider
55
Changeup
45
Control
45

Grades updated 2026-10-05

Supporting Evidence and What to Watch

Current model assessment

Supporting Evidence

Prospect Baseline places the central outcome at 69, with a modeled range from 63 to 72. That is a relatively tight band, which means the underlying inputs are showing more agreement than conflict. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.

What to Watch

The key question is whether the production forces the scouting view upward rather than drifting back toward it. Repeating the same performance against stronger competition or over a larger sample would strengthen the Floor and make the breakout harder to dismiss. That confirmation matters more now than simply adding another short stretch of strong surface numbers.

Model factors and risk context
Model Risk Index0
Age to level48
Track record75
Data quality100

Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.

Projected Outcome Range

Floor 63Baseline 69Ceiling 72

These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.

Forecast

Statistical projections

No statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.

Development Trajectory

Recorded Baseline assessments

Latest recorded Baseline: 69 on · Current Floor 63, Baseline 69, Ceiling 72

Recorded history Current Floor–Ceiling range

The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.

View recorded values
DateBaselineModel version
2026-10-1269pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0969pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0869pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0770pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0570pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0470pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0370pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-3070pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2970pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2570pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2470pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2270pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2170pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1970pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1870pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1770pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1670pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1570pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1470pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-0970pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-0656pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-0556pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-0357pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-0257pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-0157pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2857pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2757pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2556pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-08-2356pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2256pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2056pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-1956pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-1856pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-1756pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-1656pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-1456pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-08-1156pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-08-0956pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-0856pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-0756pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-0556pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-0356pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-0156pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-3156pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-3056pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-2957pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-2857pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-07-2557pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-07-2257pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-2157pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-1657pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-1457pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-1257pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-1157pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0957pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0757pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0557pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0357pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0157pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-3057pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2957pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2857pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2657pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2557pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2457pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2358pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2258pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2158pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2058pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1958pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1858pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1758pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1658pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1558pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1458pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1358pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1258pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1158pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1033pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0933pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0833pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0734pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0634pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0534pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0434pbm_145fdb152195dbe4

Development Outlook

Upside and risk

↑ Upside

The current Ceiling of 72 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.

⚑ Risk Factors

Model Risk Index: 0/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 80/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.

Verified league roster listing

The player appears in the season-scoped roster snapshot shown below. Prospect Baseline scores remain overall model evaluations.

Arizona Fall League · 2026

Verified roster listing: Salt River Rafters · Snapshot date: 2026-10-09

Prospect Score: 59.2 · Baseline: 69.0

View league model rankings

More Arizona Diamondbacks profiles

Projection updated October 12, 2026 · Methodology

Projected Outcome Range Guide

How the Prospect Baseline outcome scale maps to player outcome tiers. The separate scouting bars use the traditional 20–80 scale.

Fringe<40
Developing40–59
Solid60–69
Above average70–79
Impact80–89
Generational90–100

Floor, Baseline, and Ceiling describe the current range of modeled outcomes. They are not guaranteed results or dates.