Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 12, 2026
Prospect Baseline Profile

Demetrio Crisantes

ARI · AAA · SS

Prospect Baseline Rank #49

Player Assessment

Current model read

Demetrio Crisantes's current production is forcing the profile above its original scouting foundation. The 65 Performance Grade sits 10 points above the 55 scouting foundation, a large enough gap to change the shape of the evaluation. The age-to-level relationship adds development value to the current performance.

Prospect Score & Development

65/100

Solid composite evaluation

Baseline

76/100

Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.

Confidence

95/100

High confidence

Evidence strength, separate from model risk.

Performance context

Model-derived assessment
65/100

Solid current production

OPS
Offensive impact.854 OPSStrong overall offensive impact
K%
Contact17.5% KStrong contact signal
OBP
On-base foundation.377 OBPStrong on-base foundation

Scouting Profile

20–80 scouting scale
Overall
55
Hit
60
Power
50
Run
50
Field
45
Arm
45

Grades updated 2026-09-29

Supporting Evidence and What to Watch

Current model assessment

Supporting Evidence

Prospect Baseline places the central outcome at 76, with a modeled range from 59 to 79. The width matters: the upside is real, but the profile still has enough unresolved information to produce materially different outcomes. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.

What to Watch

A promotion or sustained success against older competition is the next meaningful checkpoint. At AAA, age-to-level context is already helping the projection. Maintaining the same indicators against stronger competition would strengthen the Baseline more than simply repeating the current line in place.

Model factors and risk context
Model Risk Index0
Age to level73
Track record69
Data quality100

Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.

Projected Outcome Range

Floor 59Baseline 76Ceiling 79

These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.

Forecast

Statistical projections

No statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.

Development Trajectory

Recorded Baseline assessments

Latest recorded Baseline: 76 on · Current Floor 59, Baseline 76, Ceiling 79

Recorded history Current Floor–Ceiling range

The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.

View recorded values
DateBaselineModel version
2026-10-1276pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0976pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0876pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0777pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0577pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0477pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0377pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-3077pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2977pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2577pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
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2026-09-1676pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
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2026-09-0975pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-0673pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-08-2573pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
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2026-06-1866pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1766pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1666pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
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2026-06-1466pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
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2026-06-0464pbm_145fdb152195dbe4

Development Outlook

Upside and risk

↑ Upside

The current Ceiling of 79 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.

⚑ Risk Factors

Model Risk Index: 0/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 95/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.

Verified league roster listing

The player appears in the season-scoped roster snapshot shown below. Prospect Baseline scores remain overall model evaluations.

Arizona Fall League · 2026

Verified roster listing: Salt River Rafters · Snapshot date: 2026-10-09

Prospect Score: 65.0 · Baseline: 76.0

View league model rankings

More Arizona Diamondbacks profiles

Projection updated October 12, 2026 · Methodology

Projected Outcome Range Guide

How the Prospect Baseline outcome scale maps to player outcome tiers. The separate scouting bars use the traditional 20–80 scale.

Fringe<40
Developing40–59
Solid60–69
Above average70–79
Impact80–89
Generational90–100

Floor, Baseline, and Ceiling describe the current range of modeled outcomes. They are not guaranteed results or dates.