Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Bryce Mayer

HOU · AAA · P · Age 25

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score68.9#230 Overall
Baseline64Most likely outcome
Performance61Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor60Lower-end outcome
Baseline64Most likely outcome
Ceiling69High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
61Solid current performance
Miss ability12.4 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command4.5 BB/9Command risk
Contact management1.4 HR/9Home-run contact is a concern

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall45
Fastball55
Slider55
Curveball55
Changeup40
Control50

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-29

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh93How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh10Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection49.5
Projected Range27–72
Arrival Probability62%
Productive Role Probability17%
Player Background
OrganizationHouston Astros
LevelAAA
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 63 Latest recorded 64
72 65.5 59 2026-09-02 · Median 63 2026-09-03 · Median 63 2026-09-05 · Median 63 2026-09-06 · Median 63 2026-09-09 · Median 68 2026-09-14 · Median 65.8 2026-09-15 · Median 66 2026-09-16 · Median 66 2026-09-17 · Median 66 2026-09-18 · Median 64 2026-09-19 · Median 64 2026-09-21 · Median 64 2026-09-22 · Median 64 2026-09-24 · Median 64 2026-09-25 · Median 64 2026-09-29 · Median 64 2026-09-30 · Median 64 2026-10-03 · Median 64 2026-10-04 · Median 64 2026-10-05 · Median 64 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 64

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
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2026-09-1465.8
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