Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Robert Arias

CLE · Single-A · OF · Age 20

Bats L · Throws L
Prospect Score66.2#328 Overall
Baseline61Most likely outcome
Performance63Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor56Lower-end outcome
Baseline61Most likely outcome
Ceiling66High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
63Solid current performance
Offensive impact.859 OPSStrong overall offensive impact
Contact14.2% KStrong contact signal
Approach15.3% BBStrong on-base approach

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall40
Hit55
Power40
Run65
Field55
Arm50

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-29

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh90How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh12Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection45.4
Projected Range27–64
Arrival Probability26%
Productive Role Probability3%
Player Background
OrganizationCleveland Guardians
LevelSingle-A
PositionOF
BatsL
ThrowsL
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 63 Latest recorded 61
67 62 57 2026-09-02 · Median 63 2026-09-03 · Median 63 2026-09-05 · Median 63 2026-09-06 · Median 63 2026-09-09 · Median 63 2026-09-14 · Median 62.6 2026-09-15 · Median 63 2026-09-16 · Median 63 2026-09-17 · Median 63 2026-09-18 · Median 63 2026-09-19 · Median 63 2026-09-21 · Median 63 2026-09-22 · Median 63 2026-09-24 · Median 63 2026-09-25 · Median 63 2026-09-29 · Median 63 2026-09-30 · Median 63 2026-10-03 · Median 63 2026-10-04 · Median 61 2026-10-05 · Median 61 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 61

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0561
2026-10-0461
2026-10-0363
2026-09-3063
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2026-09-1462.6
2026-09-0963
2026-09-0663
2026-09-0563
2026-09-0363
2026-09-0263