Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Jonathan Russell

TB · High-A · P · Age 22

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score66.0#340 Overall
Baseline63Most likely outcome
Performance61Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor56Lower-end outcome
Baseline63Most likely outcome
Ceiling71High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Further development toward the ceiling would materially strengthen the profile.

Performance

Selected evidence
61Solid current performance
Miss ability12.3 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Dominance22.8% K-BBStrong strikeout-to-walk foundation
Traffic prevention1.41 WHIPNear expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid61How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection51.1
Projected Range26–76
Arrival Probability19%
Productive Role Probability2%
Player Background
OrganizationTampa Bay Rays
LevelHigh-A
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 60 Latest recorded 63
68 62 56 2026-09-02 · Median 60 2026-09-03 · Median 60 2026-09-05 · Median 60 2026-09-06 · Median 60 2026-09-09 · Median 64 2026-09-14 · Median 63.5 2026-09-15 · Median 64 2026-09-16 · Median 64 2026-09-17 · Median 64 2026-09-18 · Median 64 2026-09-19 · Median 64 2026-09-21 · Median 64 2026-09-22 · Median 64 2026-09-24 · Median 64 2026-09-25 · Median 64 2026-09-29 · Median 64 2026-09-30 · Median 64 2026-10-03 · Median 64 2026-10-04 · Median 63 2026-10-05 · Median 63 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 63

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0563
2026-10-0463
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2026-09-1463.5
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2026-09-0260