Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Alex Santos II

HOU · AAA · P · Age 25

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score62.9#481 Overall
Baseline61Most likely outcome
Performance62Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor55Lower-end outcome
Baseline61Most likely outcome
Ceiling68High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
62Solid current performance
Miss ability13.8 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command5.4 BB/9Command risk
Contact management0.6 HR/9Limits damaging contact

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid63How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh10Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection43.5
Projected Range19–68
Arrival Probability58%
Productive Role Probability14%
Player Background
OrganizationHouston Astros
LevelAAA
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 57 Latest recorded 61
66 59.5 53 2026-09-02 · Median 57 2026-09-03 · Median 62 2026-09-05 · Median 61 2026-09-06 · Median 61 2026-09-09 · Median 61 2026-09-14 · Median 61.3 2026-09-15 · Median 61 2026-09-16 · Median 61 2026-09-17 · Median 61 2026-09-18 · Median 61 2026-09-19 · Median 61 2026-09-21 · Median 61 2026-09-22 · Median 61 2026-09-24 · Median 61 2026-09-25 · Median 61 2026-09-29 · Median 61 2026-09-30 · Median 61 2026-10-03 · Median 61 2026-10-04 · Median 61 2026-10-05 · Median 61 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 61

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0561
2026-10-0461
2026-10-0361
2026-09-3061
2026-09-2961
2026-09-2561
2026-09-2461
2026-09-2261
2026-09-2161
2026-09-1961
2026-09-1861
2026-09-1761
2026-09-1661
2026-09-1561
2026-09-1461.3
2026-09-0961
2026-09-0661
2026-09-0561
2026-09-0362
2026-09-0257