Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Brian Curley

ARI · AA · P · Age 23

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score62.5#502 Overall
Baseline57Most likely outcome
Performance51Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor53Lower-end outcome
Baseline57Most likely outcome
Ceiling61High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
51Developing performance profile
Miss ability10.1 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command2.6 BB/9Near expected range
Contact management1.7 HR/9Home-run contact is a concern

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall40
Fastball60
Slider60
Curveball50
Control45

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-01

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh88How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection50.7
Projected Range28–73
Arrival Probability33%
Productive Role Probability4%
Player Background
OrganizationArizona Diamondbacks
LevelAA
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 55 Latest recorded 57
61 56 51 2026-09-02 · Median 55 2026-09-03 · Median 55 2026-09-05 · Median 55 2026-09-06 · Median 55 2026-09-09 · Median 57 2026-09-14 · Median 56.8 2026-09-15 · Median 57 2026-09-16 · Median 57 2026-09-17 · Median 57 2026-09-18 · Median 57 2026-09-19 · Median 57 2026-09-21 · Median 57 2026-09-22 · Median 57 2026-09-24 · Median 57 2026-09-25 · Median 57 2026-09-29 · Median 57 2026-09-30 · Median 57 2026-10-03 · Median 57 2026-10-04 · Median 57 2026-10-05 · Median 57 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 57

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0557
2026-10-0457
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2026-09-3057
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2026-09-1456.8
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2026-09-0255