Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Jacob Johnson

TEX · Single-A · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#558
Score61.9
Baseline57
Signal+10.5
Trend0.0
Floor52
Baseline57
Ceiling62
Confidence86 Risk14 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Jacob Johnson

TEX · Single-A · P

Texas Rangers · Age at assessment: 20.4 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#558
Prospect Score61.9
Median57
Performance Signal+10.5
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
525762
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +10.5

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 43 Latest recorded 57
61 50 39 2026-08-16 · Median 43 2026-08-17 · Median 43 2026-08-18 · Median 43 2026-08-19 · Median 43 2026-08-20 · Median 54 2026-08-22 · Median 54 2026-08-23 · Median 53.5 2026-08-25 · Median 53.5 2026-08-27 · Median 56 2026-08-28 · Median 56 2026-09-01 · Median 56 2026-09-02 · Median 56 2026-09-03 · Median 56 2026-09-05 · Median 56 2026-09-06 · Median 56 2026-09-09 · Median 57 2026-09-14 · Median 56.6 2026-09-15 · Median 57 2026-09-16 · Median 57 2026-09-17 · Median 57 2026-09-18 · Median 57 2026-09-19 · Median 57 2026-09-21 · Median 57 2026-09-22 · Median 57 2026-09-24 · Median 57 2026-09-25 · Median 57 2026-09-29 · Median 57 2026-09-30 · Median 57 2026-10-03 · Median 57 2026-10-04 · Median 57 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 57

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0457
2026-10-0357
2026-09-3057
2026-09-2957
2026-09-2557
2026-09-2457
2026-09-2257
2026-09-2157
2026-09-1957
2026-09-1857
2026-09-1757
2026-09-1657
2026-09-1557
2026-09-1456.6
2026-09-0957
2026-09-0656
2026-09-0556
2026-09-0356
2026-09-0256
2026-09-0156
2026-08-2856
2026-08-2756
2026-08-2553.5
2026-08-2353.5
2026-08-2254
2026-08-2054
2026-08-1943
2026-08-1843
2026-08-1743
2026-08-1643

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 86
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 14
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
525762
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +10.5

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 14
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence86
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection48.1
Projected range23–73
Arrival probability6%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.