Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Luke Pelzer

KC · AA · OF · Age 24

Bats L · Throws L
Prospect Score61.3#594 Overall
Baseline56Most likely outcome
Performance56Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor51Lower-end outcome
Baseline56Most likely outcome
Ceiling62High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
56Solid current performance
Offensive impact.875 OPSStrong overall offensive impact
Contact20.6% KNear expected range
On-base foundation.408 OBPStrong on-base foundation

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid63How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection45.0
Projected Range28–62
Arrival Probability66%
Productive Role Probability16%
Player Background
OrganizationKansas City Royals
LevelAA
PositionOF
BatsL
ThrowsL
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 55 Latest recorded 56
61 56 51 2026-09-02 · Median 55 2026-09-03 · Median 55 2026-09-05 · Median 55 2026-09-06 · Median 55 2026-09-09 · Median 57 2026-09-14 · Median 56.2 2026-09-15 · Median 56 2026-09-16 · Median 56 2026-09-17 · Median 56 2026-09-18 · Median 56 2026-09-19 · Median 56 2026-09-21 · Median 56 2026-09-22 · Median 56 2026-09-24 · Median 56 2026-09-25 · Median 56 2026-09-29 · Median 56 2026-09-30 · Median 56 2026-10-03 · Median 56 2026-10-04 · Median 56 2026-10-05 · Median 56 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 56

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0556
2026-10-0456
2026-10-0356
2026-09-3056
2026-09-2956
2026-09-2556
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2026-09-2256
2026-09-2156
2026-09-1956
2026-09-1856
2026-09-1756
2026-09-1656
2026-09-1556
2026-09-1456.2
2026-09-0957
2026-09-0655
2026-09-0555
2026-09-0355
2026-09-0255