Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Blake Morgan

TB · High-A · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#678
Score60.2
Baseline55
Signal+16.9
Trend+0.7
Floor50
Baseline55
Ceiling60
Confidence87 Risk10 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Blake Morgan

TB · High-A · P

Tampa Bay Rays · Age at assessment: 23.3 · Bats: L · Throws: L

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#678
Prospect Score60.2
Median55
Performance Signal+16.9
Trend+0.7

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range+0.7
505560
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +16.9

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 45 Latest recorded 55
59 50 41 2026-08-16 · Median 45 2026-08-17 · Median 45 2026-08-18 · Median 45 2026-08-19 · Median 45 2026-08-20 · Median 53 2026-08-22 · Median 53 2026-08-23 · Median 52.5 2026-08-25 · Median 52.5 2026-08-27 · Median 53 2026-08-28 · Median 53 2026-09-01 · Median 54 2026-09-02 · Median 54 2026-09-03 · Median 54 2026-09-05 · Median 54 2026-09-06 · Median 54 2026-09-09 · Median 54 2026-09-14 · Median 54.3 2026-09-15 · Median 54 2026-09-16 · Median 54 2026-09-17 · Median 54 2026-09-18 · Median 54 2026-09-19 · Median 54 2026-09-21 · Median 54 2026-09-22 · Median 54 2026-09-24 · Median 54 2026-09-25 · Median 54 2026-09-29 · Median 54 2026-09-30 · Median 54 2026-10-03 · Median 54 2026-10-04 · Median 55 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 55

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0455
2026-10-0354
2026-09-3054
2026-09-2954
2026-09-2554
2026-09-2454
2026-09-2254
2026-09-2154
2026-09-1954
2026-09-1854
2026-09-1754
2026-09-1654
2026-09-1554
2026-09-1454.3
2026-09-0954
2026-09-0654
2026-09-0554
2026-09-0354
2026-09-0254
2026-09-0154
2026-08-2853
2026-08-2753
2026-08-2552.5
2026-08-2352.5
2026-08-2253
2026-08-2053
2026-08-1945
2026-08-1845
2026-08-1745
2026-08-1645

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 87
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range+0.7
505560
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +16.9

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence87
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection52.2
Projected range31–73
Arrival probability20%
Productive role probability2%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.