Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Josh Caron

SEA · AA · C

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#731
Score59.5
Baseline56
Signal+2.8
Trend0.0
Floor50
Baseline56
Ceiling63
Confidence62 Risk0 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Josh Caron

SEA · AA · C

Seattle Mariners · Age at assessment: 23.2 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#731
Prospect Score59.5
Median56
Performance Signal+2.8
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
505663
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +2.8

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 57 Latest recorded 56
61 54 47 2026-08-16 · Median 57 2026-08-17 · Median 57 2026-08-18 · Median 56 2026-08-19 · Median 56 2026-08-20 · Median 56 2026-08-22 · Median 55 2026-08-23 · Median 54.1 2026-08-25 · Median 54.1 2026-08-27 · Median 51 2026-08-28 · Median 51 2026-09-01 · Median 53 2026-09-02 · Median 53 2026-09-03 · Median 52 2026-09-05 · Median 54 2026-09-06 · Median 54 2026-09-09 · Median 57 2026-09-14 · Median 56.5 2026-09-15 · Median 57 2026-09-16 · Median 57 2026-09-17 · Median 57 2026-09-18 · Median 57 2026-09-19 · Median 57 2026-09-21 · Median 57 2026-09-22 · Median 57 2026-09-24 · Median 57 2026-09-25 · Median 57 2026-09-29 · Median 56 2026-09-30 · Median 56 2026-10-03 · Median 56 2026-10-04 · Median 56 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 56

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0456
2026-10-0356
2026-09-3056
2026-09-2956
2026-09-2557
2026-09-2457
2026-09-2257
2026-09-2157
2026-09-1957
2026-09-1857
2026-09-1757
2026-09-1657
2026-09-1557
2026-09-1456.5
2026-09-0957
2026-09-0654
2026-09-0554
2026-09-0352
2026-09-0253
2026-09-0153
2026-08-2851
2026-08-2751
2026-08-2554.1
2026-08-2354.1
2026-08-2255
2026-08-2056
2026-08-1956
2026-08-1856
2026-08-1757
2026-08-1657

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 62
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 0
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
505663
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +2.8

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 0
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence62
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection37.2
Projected range20–55
Arrival probability61%
Productive role probability6%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.