Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Roderick Arias

NYY · AA · SS

New York Yankees · Age at assessment: 22.1 · Bats: S · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#761
Prospect Score59.2
Median56
Performance Signal-6.3
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
505663
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -6.3

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 50 Latest recorded 56
66 55 44 2026-08-14 · Median 50 2026-08-16 · Median 50 2026-08-17 · Median 50 2026-08-18 · Median 48 2026-08-19 · Median 49 2026-08-20 · Median 61 2026-08-22 · Median 62 2026-08-23 · Median 59.1 2026-08-25 · Median 59.1 2026-08-27 · Median 59 2026-08-28 · Median 59 2026-09-01 · Median 59 2026-09-02 · Median 59 2026-09-03 · Median 59 2026-09-05 · Median 56 2026-09-06 · Median 56 2026-09-09 · Median 56 2026-09-14 · Median 56.6 2026-09-15 · Median 57 2026-09-16 · Median 57 2026-09-17 · Median 57 2026-09-18 · Median 57 2026-09-19 · Median 57 2026-09-21 · Median 57 2026-09-22 · Median 57 2026-09-24 · Median 57 2026-09-25 · Median 57 2026-09-29 · Median 56 2026-09-30 · Median 56 2026-10-03 · Median 56 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 56

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0356
2026-09-3056
2026-09-2956
2026-09-2557
2026-09-2457
2026-09-2257
2026-09-2157
2026-09-1957
2026-09-1857
2026-09-1757
2026-09-1657
2026-09-1557
2026-09-1456.6
2026-09-0956
2026-09-0656
2026-09-0556
2026-09-0359
2026-09-0259
2026-09-0159
2026-08-2859
2026-08-2759
2026-08-2559.1
2026-08-2359.1
2026-08-2262
2026-08-2061
2026-08-1949
2026-08-1848
2026-08-1750
2026-08-1650
2026-08-1450

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 63
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 0
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
505663
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -6.3

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 0
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence63
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection31.5
Projected range14–49
Arrival probability62%
Productive role probability7%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.