Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Coleman Picard

KC · AA · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#943
Score56.7
Baseline53
Signal+9.2
Trend-0.2
Floor47
Baseline53
Ceiling60
Confidence58 Risk10 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Coleman Picard

KC · AA · P

Kansas City Royals · Age at assessment: 24.9 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#943
Prospect Score56.7
Median53
Performance Signal+9.2
Trend-0.2

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range-0.2
475360
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +9.2

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 37 Latest recorded 53
58 45.5 33 2026-08-16 · Median 37 2026-08-17 · Median 37 2026-08-18 · Median 37 2026-08-19 · Median 37 2026-08-20 · Median 37 2026-08-22 · Median 37 2026-08-23 · Median 37.2 2026-08-25 · Median 37.2 2026-08-27 · Median 37 2026-08-28 · Median 37 2026-09-01 · Median 37 2026-09-02 · Median 37 2026-09-03 · Median 37 2026-09-05 · Median 37 2026-09-06 · Median 37 2026-09-09 · Median 51 2026-09-14 · Median 53.3 2026-09-15 · Median 53 2026-09-16 · Median 53 2026-09-17 · Median 53 2026-09-18 · Median 53 2026-09-19 · Median 53 2026-09-21 · Median 53 2026-09-22 · Median 53 2026-09-24 · Median 53 2026-09-25 · Median 53 2026-09-29 · Median 53 2026-09-30 · Median 53 2026-10-03 · Median 53 2026-10-04 · Median 53 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 53

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0453
2026-10-0353
2026-09-3053
2026-09-2953
2026-09-2553
2026-09-2453
2026-09-2253
2026-09-2153
2026-09-1953
2026-09-1853
2026-09-1753
2026-09-1653
2026-09-1553
2026-09-1453.3
2026-09-0951
2026-09-0637
2026-09-0537
2026-09-0337
2026-09-0237
2026-09-0137
2026-08-2837
2026-08-2737
2026-08-2537.2
2026-08-2337.2
2026-08-2237
2026-08-2037
2026-08-1937
2026-08-1837
2026-08-1737
2026-08-1637

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 58
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range-0.2
475360
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +9.2

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence58
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection46.1
Projected range21–71
Arrival probability16%
Productive role probability2%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.