Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Luke Jackson

TB · Single-A · P

Tampa Bay Rays · Age at assessment: 22.4 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

PB Rank#971
Prospect Score56.5
Median53
Performance Signal+11.7
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
455365
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +11.7

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 47 Latest recorded 53
57 49.5 42 2026-08-14 · Median 47 2026-08-16 · Median 47 2026-08-17 · Median 47 2026-08-18 · Median 47 2026-08-19 · Median 47 2026-08-20 · Median 47 2026-08-22 · Median 47 2026-08-23 · Median 46.7 2026-08-25 · Median 46.7 2026-08-27 · Median 47 2026-08-28 · Median 46 2026-09-01 · Median 46 2026-09-02 · Median 46 2026-09-03 · Median 46 2026-09-05 · Median 46 2026-09-06 · Median 46 2026-09-09 · Median 53 2026-09-14 · Median 53 2026-09-15 · Median 53 2026-09-16 · Median 53 2026-09-17 · Median 53 2026-09-18 · Median 53 2026-09-19 · Median 53 2026-09-21 · Median 53 2026-09-22 · Median 53 2026-09-24 · Median 53 2026-09-25 · Median 53 2026-09-29 · Median 53 2026-09-30 · Median 53 2026-10-03 · Median 53 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 53

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0353
2026-09-3053
2026-09-2953
2026-09-2553
2026-09-2453
2026-09-2253
2026-09-2153
2026-09-1953
2026-09-1853
2026-09-1753
2026-09-1653
2026-09-1553
2026-09-1453
2026-09-0953
2026-09-0646
2026-09-0546
2026-09-0346
2026-09-0246
2026-09-0146
2026-08-2846
2026-08-2747
2026-08-2546.7
2026-08-2346.7
2026-08-2247
2026-08-2047
2026-08-1947
2026-08-1847
2026-08-1747
2026-08-1647
2026-08-1447

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 50
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 12
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
455365
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +11.7

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 12
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence50
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection55.6
Projected range31–81
Arrival probability4%
Productive role probability0%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.