Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Trace Baker

TOR · High-A · P

Toronto Blue Jays · Age at assessment: 22.8 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,090
Prospect Score55.2
Median53
Performance Signal+3.9
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
455362
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +3.9

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 53 Latest recorded 53
57 51 45 2026-07-07 · Median 53 2026-07-09 · Median 53 2026-07-11 · Median 53 2026-07-12 · Median 53 2026-07-14 · Median 53 2026-07-16 · Median 53 2026-07-21 · Median 53 2026-07-22 · Median 53 2026-07-23 · Median 53 2026-08-27 · Median 49 2026-08-28 · Median 49 2026-09-01 · Median 49 2026-09-02 · Median 49 2026-09-03 · Median 49 2026-09-05 · Median 49 2026-09-06 · Median 49 2026-09-09 · Median 52 2026-09-14 · Median 51.8 2026-09-15 · Median 52 2026-09-16 · Median 52 2026-09-17 · Median 52 2026-09-18 · Median 51 2026-09-19 · Median 51 2026-09-21 · Median 51 2026-09-22 · Median 51 2026-09-24 · Median 53 2026-09-25 · Median 53 2026-09-29 · Median 53 2026-09-30 · Median 53 2026-10-03 · Median 53 2026-07-07 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 53

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0353
2026-09-3053
2026-09-2953
2026-09-2553
2026-09-2453
2026-09-2251
2026-09-2151
2026-09-1951
2026-09-1851
2026-09-1752
2026-09-1652
2026-09-1552
2026-09-1451.8
2026-09-0952
2026-09-0649
2026-09-0549
2026-09-0349
2026-09-0249
2026-09-0149
2026-08-2849
2026-08-2749
2026-07-2353
2026-07-2253
2026-07-2153
2026-07-1653
2026-07-1453
2026-07-1253
2026-07-1153
2026-07-0953
2026-07-0753

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 53
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
455362
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +3.9

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence53
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection51.1
Projected range26–76
Arrival probability6%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.