Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Caden Merritt

ATL · Single-A · CF

Atlanta Braves · Age at assessment: 19.4 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,196
Prospect Score54.2
Median53
Performance Signal+0.8
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
455361
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +0.8

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 60 Latest recorded 53
64 56.5 49 2026-08-14 · Median 60 2026-08-16 · Median 60 2026-08-17 · Median 60 2026-08-18 · Median 60 2026-08-19 · Median 59 2026-08-20 · Median 59 2026-08-22 · Median 59 2026-08-23 · Median 59 2026-08-25 · Median 59 2026-08-27 · Median 59 2026-08-28 · Median 59 2026-09-01 · Median 59 2026-09-02 · Median 59 2026-09-03 · Median 59 2026-09-05 · Median 59 2026-09-06 · Median 59 2026-09-09 · Median 54 2026-09-14 · Median 53.5 2026-09-15 · Median 53 2026-09-16 · Median 53 2026-09-17 · Median 53 2026-09-18 · Median 53 2026-09-19 · Median 53 2026-09-21 · Median 53 2026-09-22 · Median 54 2026-09-24 · Median 53 2026-09-25 · Median 53 2026-09-29 · Median 53 2026-09-30 · Median 53 2026-10-03 · Median 53 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 53

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0353
2026-09-3053
2026-09-2953
2026-09-2553
2026-09-2453
2026-09-2254
2026-09-2153
2026-09-1953
2026-09-1853
2026-09-1753
2026-09-1653
2026-09-1553
2026-09-1453.5
2026-09-0954
2026-09-0659
2026-09-0559
2026-09-0359
2026-09-0259
2026-09-0159
2026-08-2859
2026-08-2759
2026-08-2559
2026-08-2359
2026-08-2259
2026-08-2059
2026-08-1959
2026-08-1860
2026-08-1760
2026-08-1660
2026-08-1460

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 59
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 19
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
455361
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +0.8

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 19
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence59
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection38.3
Projected range23–54
Arrival probability15%
Productive role probability2%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.