Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Alberto Hernandez

HOU · AA · SS · Age 23

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score54.1#1,188 Overall
Baseline51Most likely outcome
Performance45Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor44Lower-end outcome
Baseline51Most likely outcome
Ceiling58High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
45Developing performance profile
Offensive impact.672 OPSBalanced offensive output
Contact19.6% KNear expected range
On-base foundation.288 OBPOn-base output is a concern

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid60How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh5Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection36.8
Projected Range20–54
Arrival Probability8%
Productive Role Probability1%
Player Background
OrganizationHouston Astros
LevelAA
PositionSS
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 65 Latest recorded 51
69 58 47 2026-09-02 · Median 65 2026-09-03 · Median 65 2026-09-05 · Median 65 2026-09-06 · Median 65 2026-09-09 · Median 53 2026-09-14 · Median 51.8 2026-09-15 · Median 52 2026-09-16 · Median 52 2026-09-17 · Median 52 2026-09-18 · Median 52 2026-09-19 · Median 52 2026-09-21 · Median 52 2026-09-22 · Median 52 2026-09-24 · Median 52 2026-09-25 · Median 52 2026-09-29 · Median 51 2026-09-30 · Median 51 2026-10-03 · Median 51 2026-10-04 · Median 51 2026-10-05 · Median 51 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 51

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0551
2026-10-0451
2026-10-0351
2026-09-3051
2026-09-2951
2026-09-2552
2026-09-2452
2026-09-2252
2026-09-2152
2026-09-1952
2026-09-1852
2026-09-1752
2026-09-1652
2026-09-1552
2026-09-1451.8
2026-09-0953
2026-09-0665
2026-09-0565
2026-09-0365
2026-09-0265