Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Homer Bush Jr.

TB · AAA · CF · Age 25

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score53.0#1,307 Overall
Baseline47Most likely outcome
Performance37Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor42Lower-end outcome
Baseline47Most likely outcome
Ceiling51High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

Performance

Selected evidence
37Developing performance profile
Offensive impact.625 OPSLimited current offensive impact
Contact27.2% KNear expected range
On-base foundation.300 OBPNear expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall40
Hit50
Power30
Run80
Field70
Arm50

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-21

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh93How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh5Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection31.3
Projected Range14–49
Arrival Probability40%
Productive Role Probability2%
Player Background
OrganizationTampa Bay Rays
LevelAAA
PositionCF
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 46 Latest recorded 47
51 46.5 42 2026-09-02 · Median 46 2026-09-03 · Median 46 2026-09-05 · Median 46 2026-09-06 · Median 46 2026-09-09 · Median 47 2026-09-14 · Median 46.9 2026-09-15 · Median 47 2026-09-16 · Median 47 2026-09-17 · Median 47 2026-09-18 · Median 47 2026-09-19 · Median 47 2026-09-21 · Median 47 2026-09-22 · Median 47 2026-09-24 · Median 47 2026-09-25 · Median 47 2026-09-29 · Median 47 2026-09-30 · Median 47 2026-10-03 · Median 47 2026-10-04 · Median 47 2026-10-05 · Median 47 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 47

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0547
2026-10-0447
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2026-09-3047
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2026-09-1446.9
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2026-09-0646
2026-09-0546
2026-09-0346
2026-09-0246