Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Joe Vogatsky

BOS · AA · P · Age 25

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score52.7#1,335 Overall
Baseline50Most likely outcome
Performance49Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor44Lower-end outcome
Baseline50Most likely outcome
Ceiling58High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Further development toward the ceiling would materially strengthen the profile.

Performance

Selected evidence
49Developing performance profile
Miss ability10.4 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command3.5 BB/9Near expected range
Traffic prevention1.43 WHIPNear expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid61How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh10Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection46.9
Projected Range22–72
Arrival Probability24%
Productive Role Probability3%
Player Background
OrganizationBoston Red Sox
LevelAA
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 42 Latest recorded 50
55 46.5 38 2026-09-02 · Median 42 2026-09-03 · Median 42 2026-09-05 · Median 42 2026-09-06 · Median 42 2026-09-09 · Median 51 2026-09-14 · Median 50.6 2026-09-15 · Median 51 2026-09-16 · Median 51 2026-09-17 · Median 51 2026-09-18 · Median 51 2026-09-19 · Median 51 2026-09-21 · Median 51 2026-09-22 · Median 51 2026-09-24 · Median 51 2026-09-25 · Median 51 2026-09-29 · Median 50 2026-09-30 · Median 50 2026-10-03 · Median 50 2026-10-04 · Median 50 2026-10-05 · Median 50 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 50

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0550
2026-10-0450
2026-10-0350
2026-09-3050
2026-09-2950
2026-09-2551
2026-09-2451
2026-09-2251
2026-09-2151
2026-09-1951
2026-09-1851
2026-09-1751
2026-09-1651
2026-09-1551
2026-09-1450.6
2026-09-0951
2026-09-0642
2026-09-0542
2026-09-0342
2026-09-0242