Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Abner Meza

NYM · DSL · P · Age 19

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score52.6#1,348 Overall
Baseline52Most likely outcome
Performance63Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor43Lower-end outcome
Baseline52Most likely outcome
Ceiling61High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of meaningful developmental upside. Further development toward the ceiling would materially strengthen the profile.

Performance

Selected evidence
63Solid current performance
Miss ability9.1 K/9Near expected range
Command1.8 BB/9Above-average command
Contact management0.2 HR/9Limits damaging contact

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceDeveloping54How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskSolid38Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection55.8
Projected Range31–81
Arrival Probability4%
Productive Role Probability1%
Player Background
OrganizationNew York Mets
LevelDSL
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 53 Latest recorded 52
57 52.5 48 2026-09-02 · Median 53 2026-09-03 · Median 53 2026-09-05 · Median 53 2026-09-06 · Median 53 2026-09-09 · Median 52 2026-09-14 · Median 52.1 2026-09-15 · Median 52 2026-09-16 · Median 52 2026-09-17 · Median 52 2026-09-18 · Median 52 2026-09-19 · Median 52 2026-09-21 · Median 52 2026-09-22 · Median 52 2026-09-24 · Median 52 2026-09-25 · Median 52 2026-09-29 · Median 52 2026-09-30 · Median 52 2026-10-03 · Median 52 2026-10-04 · Median 52 2026-10-05 · Median 52 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 52

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0552
2026-10-0452
2026-10-0352
2026-09-3052
2026-09-2952
2026-09-2552
2026-09-2452
2026-09-2252
2026-09-2152
2026-09-1952
2026-09-1852
2026-09-1752
2026-09-1652
2026-09-1552
2026-09-1452.1
2026-09-0952
2026-09-0653
2026-09-0553
2026-09-0353
2026-09-0253