Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Joseph Sullivan

HOU · AA · CF

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#1,472
Score51.7
Baseline53
Signal-3.1
Trend-0.4
Floor47
Baseline53
Ceiling58
Confidence91 Risk38 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Joseph Sullivan

HOU · AA · CF

Houston Astros · Age at assessment: 24.3 · Bats: L · Throws: L

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,472
Prospect Score51.7
Median53
Performance Signal-3.1
Trend-0.4

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range-0.4
475358
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -3.1

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 46 Latest recorded 53
57 49.5 42 2026-08-11 · Median 46 2026-08-13 · Median 46 2026-08-14 · Median 46 2026-08-16 · Median 46 2026-08-17 · Median 46 2026-08-18 · Median 46 2026-08-19 · Median 46 2026-08-20 · Median 46.3 2026-08-27 · Median 53 2026-08-28 · Median 53 2026-09-01 · Median 53 2026-09-02 · Median 53 2026-09-03 · Median 53 2026-09-05 · Median 53 2026-09-06 · Median 53 2026-09-09 · Median 53 2026-09-14 · Median 53 2026-09-15 · Median 53 2026-09-16 · Median 53 2026-09-17 · Median 53 2026-09-18 · Median 53 2026-09-19 · Median 53 2026-09-21 · Median 53 2026-09-22 · Median 53 2026-09-24 · Median 53 2026-09-25 · Median 53 2026-09-29 · Median 53 2026-09-30 · Median 53 2026-10-03 · Median 53 2026-10-04 · Median 53 2026-08-11 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 53

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0453
2026-10-0353
2026-09-3053
2026-09-2953
2026-09-2553
2026-09-2453
2026-09-2253
2026-09-2153
2026-09-1953
2026-09-1853
2026-09-1753
2026-09-1653
2026-09-1553
2026-09-1453
2026-09-0953
2026-09-0653
2026-09-0553
2026-09-0353
2026-09-0253
2026-09-0153
2026-08-2853
2026-08-2753
2026-08-2046.3
2026-08-1946
2026-08-1846
2026-08-1746
2026-08-1646
2026-08-1446
2026-08-1346
2026-08-1146

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 91
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 38
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range-0.4
475358
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -3.1

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 38
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence91
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection37.3
Projected range20–55
Arrival probability27%
Productive role probability2%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.