Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Avery Short

ARI · AAA · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#1,589
Score50.8
Baseline47
Signal-20.6
Trend-1.9
Floor41
Baseline47
Ceiling54
Confidence62 Risk1 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Avery Short

ARI · AAA · P

Arizona Diamondbacks · Age at assessment: 25.6 · Bats: R · Throws: L

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,589
Prospect Score50.8
Median47
Performance Signal-20.6
Trend-1.9

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range-1.9
414754
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -20.6

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 43 Latest recorded 47
56 47 38 2026-08-16 · Median 43 2026-08-17 · Median 43 2026-08-18 · Median 43 2026-08-19 · Median 43 2026-08-20 · Median 43 2026-08-22 · Median 43 2026-08-23 · Median 42.4 2026-08-25 · Median 42.4 2026-08-27 · Median 48 2026-08-28 · Median 48 2026-09-01 · Median 52 2026-09-02 · Median 52 2026-09-03 · Median 52 2026-09-05 · Median 52 2026-09-06 · Median 52 2026-09-09 · Median 49 2026-09-14 · Median 48.3 2026-09-15 · Median 48 2026-09-16 · Median 48 2026-09-17 · Median 48 2026-09-18 · Median 48 2026-09-19 · Median 48 2026-09-21 · Median 48 2026-09-22 · Median 48 2026-09-24 · Median 48 2026-09-25 · Median 48 2026-09-29 · Median 48 2026-09-30 · Median 48 2026-10-03 · Median 48 2026-10-04 · Median 47 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 47

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0447
2026-10-0348
2026-09-3048
2026-09-2948
2026-09-2548
2026-09-2448
2026-09-2248
2026-09-2148
2026-09-1948
2026-09-1848
2026-09-1748
2026-09-1648
2026-09-1548
2026-09-1448.3
2026-09-0949
2026-09-0652
2026-09-0552
2026-09-0352
2026-09-0252
2026-09-0152
2026-08-2848
2026-08-2748
2026-08-2542.4
2026-08-2342.4
2026-08-2243
2026-08-2043
2026-08-1943
2026-08-1843
2026-08-1743
2026-08-1643

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Declining
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 62
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 1
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range-1.9
414754
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -20.6

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 1
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence62
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection35.6
Projected range13–58
Arrival probability11%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.