Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Jay Beshears

MIA · AA · 1B

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#1,526
Score51.4
Baseline49
Signal-8.3
Trend+0.2
Floor43
Baseline49
Ceiling56
Confidence62 Risk10 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Jay Beshears

MIA · AA · 1B

Miami Marlins · Age at assessment: 24.4 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,526
Prospect Score51.4
Median49
Performance Signal-8.3
Trend+0.2

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range+0.2
434956
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -8.3

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 52 Latest recorded 49
56 50 44 2026-08-16 · Median 52 2026-08-17 · Median 52 2026-08-18 · Median 52 2026-08-19 · Median 52 2026-08-20 · Median 52 2026-08-22 · Median 51 2026-08-23 · Median 50.3 2026-08-25 · Median 50.3 2026-08-27 · Median 50 2026-08-28 · Median 50 2026-09-01 · Median 50 2026-09-02 · Median 50 2026-09-03 · Median 50 2026-09-05 · Median 50 2026-09-06 · Median 50 2026-09-09 · Median 49 2026-09-14 · Median 48.8 2026-09-15 · Median 49 2026-09-16 · Median 49 2026-09-17 · Median 49 2026-09-18 · Median 49 2026-09-19 · Median 49 2026-09-21 · Median 49 2026-09-22 · Median 49 2026-09-24 · Median 49 2026-09-25 · Median 49 2026-09-29 · Median 49 2026-09-30 · Median 49 2026-10-03 · Median 49 2026-10-04 · Median 49 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 49

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0449
2026-10-0349
2026-09-3049
2026-09-2949
2026-09-2549
2026-09-2449
2026-09-2249
2026-09-2149
2026-09-1949
2026-09-1849
2026-09-1749
2026-09-1649
2026-09-1549
2026-09-1448.8
2026-09-0949
2026-09-0650
2026-09-0550
2026-09-0350
2026-09-0250
2026-09-0150
2026-08-2850
2026-08-2750
2026-08-2550.3
2026-08-2350.3
2026-08-2251
2026-08-2052
2026-08-1952
2026-08-1852
2026-08-1752
2026-08-1652

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 62
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range+0.2
434956
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -8.3

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence62
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection36.3
Projected range19–53
Arrival probability21%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.