Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Colby Shade

MIA · AA · OF

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#1,634
Score50.5
Baseline48
Signal-7.9
Trend+0.2
Floor42
Baseline48
Ceiling55
Confidence60 Risk10 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Colby Shade

MIA · AA · OF

Miami Marlins · Age at assessment: 25.1 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,634
Prospect Score50.5
Median48
Performance Signal-7.9
Trend+0.2

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range+0.2
424855
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -7.9

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 47 Latest recorded 48
54 48.5 43 2026-08-16 · Median 47 2026-08-17 · Median 47 2026-08-18 · Median 47 2026-08-19 · Median 47 2026-08-20 · Median 47 2026-08-22 · Median 47 2026-08-23 · Median 49.6 2026-08-25 · Median 49.6 2026-08-27 · Median 50 2026-08-28 · Median 50 2026-09-01 · Median 49 2026-09-02 · Median 49 2026-09-03 · Median 49 2026-09-05 · Median 49 2026-09-06 · Median 48 2026-09-09 · Median 48 2026-09-14 · Median 48 2026-09-15 · Median 48 2026-09-16 · Median 48 2026-09-17 · Median 48 2026-09-18 · Median 48 2026-09-19 · Median 48 2026-09-21 · Median 48 2026-09-22 · Median 48 2026-09-24 · Median 48 2026-09-25 · Median 48 2026-09-29 · Median 48 2026-09-30 · Median 48 2026-10-03 · Median 48 2026-10-04 · Median 48 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 48

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0448
2026-10-0348
2026-09-3048
2026-09-2948
2026-09-2548
2026-09-2448
2026-09-2248
2026-09-2148
2026-09-1948
2026-09-1848
2026-09-1748
2026-09-1648
2026-09-1548
2026-09-1448
2026-09-0948
2026-09-0648
2026-09-0549
2026-09-0349
2026-09-0249
2026-09-0149
2026-08-2850
2026-08-2750
2026-08-2549.6
2026-08-2349.6
2026-08-2247
2026-08-2047
2026-08-1947
2026-08-1847
2026-08-1747
2026-08-1647

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 60
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range+0.2
424855
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -7.9

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence60
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection36.9
Projected range20–54
Arrival probability45%
Productive role probability3%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.