Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Jhancarlos Lara

WSH · AA · P · Age 24

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score49.5#1,748 Overall
Baseline49Most likely outcome
Performance44Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor41Lower-end outcome
Baseline49Most likely outcome
Ceiling56High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
44Developing performance profile
Miss ability13.7 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command13.3 BB/9Command risk
Traffic prevention2.17 WHIPElevated traffic

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid57How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh21Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection30.9
Projected Range6–56
Arrival Probability12%
Productive Role Probability2%
Player Background
OrganizationWashington Nationals
LevelAA
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 49 Latest recorded 49
53 48.5 44 2026-09-02 · Median 49 2026-09-03 · Median 48 2026-09-05 · Median 48 2026-09-06 · Median 48 2026-09-09 · Median 49 2026-09-14 · Median 48.8 2026-09-15 · Median 49 2026-09-16 · Median 49 2026-09-17 · Median 49 2026-09-18 · Median 49 2026-09-19 · Median 49 2026-09-21 · Median 49 2026-09-22 · Median 49 2026-09-24 · Median 49 2026-09-25 · Median 49 2026-09-29 · Median 49 2026-09-30 · Median 49 2026-10-03 · Median 49 2026-10-04 · Median 49 2026-10-05 · Median 49 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 49

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0549
2026-10-0449
2026-10-0349
2026-09-3049
2026-09-2949
2026-09-2549
2026-09-2449
2026-09-2249
2026-09-2149
2026-09-1949
2026-09-1849
2026-09-1749
2026-09-1649
2026-09-1549
2026-09-1448.8
2026-09-0949
2026-09-0648
2026-09-0548
2026-09-0348
2026-09-0249