Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Nick Falter

SD · High-A · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#1,877
Score48.5
Baseline46
Signal-6.0
Trend0.0
Floor39
Baseline46
Ceiling53
Confidence59 Risk10 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Nick Falter

SD · High-A · P

San Diego Padres · Age at assessment: 23.4 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,877
Prospect Score48.5
Median46
Performance Signal-6.0
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
394653
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -6.0

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 37 Latest recorded 46
50 41.5 33 2026-08-16 · Median 37 2026-08-17 · Median 37 2026-08-18 · Median 37 2026-08-19 · Median 37 2026-08-20 · Median 37 2026-08-22 · Median 37 2026-08-23 · Median 37.4 2026-08-25 · Median 37.4 2026-08-27 · Median 38 2026-08-28 · Median 38 2026-09-01 · Median 39 2026-09-02 · Median 39 2026-09-03 · Median 39 2026-09-05 · Median 39 2026-09-06 · Median 39 2026-09-09 · Median 46 2026-09-14 · Median 45.7 2026-09-15 · Median 46 2026-09-16 · Median 46 2026-09-17 · Median 46 2026-09-18 · Median 46 2026-09-19 · Median 46 2026-09-21 · Median 46 2026-09-22 · Median 46 2026-09-24 · Median 46 2026-09-25 · Median 46 2026-09-29 · Median 46 2026-09-30 · Median 46 2026-10-03 · Median 46 2026-10-04 · Median 46 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 46

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0446
2026-10-0346
2026-09-3046
2026-09-2946
2026-09-2546
2026-09-2446
2026-09-2246
2026-09-2146
2026-09-1946
2026-09-1846
2026-09-1746
2026-09-1646
2026-09-1546
2026-09-1445.7
2026-09-0946
2026-09-0639
2026-09-0539
2026-09-0339
2026-09-0239
2026-09-0139
2026-08-2838
2026-08-2738
2026-08-2537.4
2026-08-2337.4
2026-08-2237
2026-08-2037
2026-08-1937
2026-08-1837
2026-08-1737
2026-08-1637

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 59
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
394653
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -6.0

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence59
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection46.2
Projected range21–71
Arrival probability7%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.