Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Cole Tolbert

BOS · Single-A · P · Age 24

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score48.4#1,893 Overall
Baseline45Most likely outcome
Performance51Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor38Lower-end outcome
Baseline45Most likely outcome
Ceiling53High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Further development toward the ceiling would materially strengthen the profile.

Performance

Selected evidence
51Developing performance profile
Miss ability9.4 K/9Near expected range
Command3.5 BB/9Near expected range
Contact management0.5 HR/9Limits damaging contact

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid57How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh12Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection49.7
Projected Range25–75
Arrival Probability4%
Productive Role Probability0%
Player Background
OrganizationBoston Red Sox
LevelSingle-A
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 44 Latest recorded 45
50 45 40 2026-09-02 · Median 44 2026-09-03 · Median 45 2026-09-05 · Median 45 2026-09-06 · Median 45 2026-09-09 · Median 45 2026-09-14 · Median 45.1 2026-09-15 · Median 45 2026-09-16 · Median 45 2026-09-17 · Median 45 2026-09-18 · Median 45 2026-09-19 · Median 45 2026-09-21 · Median 45 2026-09-22 · Median 45 2026-09-24 · Median 45 2026-09-25 · Median 45 2026-09-29 · Median 45 2026-09-30 · Median 45 2026-10-03 · Median 45 2026-10-04 · Median 45 2026-10-05 · Median 45 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 45

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0545
2026-10-0445
2026-10-0345
2026-09-3045
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2026-09-1745
2026-09-1645
2026-09-1545
2026-09-1445.1
2026-09-0945
2026-09-0645
2026-09-0545
2026-09-0345
2026-09-0244