Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 25, 2026 · 2:59 PM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Blake Morgan

TB · High-A · P

Tampa Bay Rays · Age at assessment: 23.3 · Bats: L · Throws: L

Results Ahead of Tools
Compare
Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Command results ahead of the tool grade

Current strike throwing is outperforming the verified command expectation

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#708
Prospect Score60
Median54
Performance55
Trend+0.2%

Why the player is here

  • Command 55; command evidence sits near the 94th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • BB/9 is 2.2

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Stuff-16.3 percentile gap
Expected 67 Observed 50
Command+35.8 percentile gap
Expected 58 Observed 94

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 45 Latest recorded 54
59 50 41 2026-06-04 · Median 45 2026-06-05 · Median 45 2026-06-06 · Median 45 2026-06-07 · Median 45 2026-06-08 · Median 45 2026-06-09 · Median 45 2026-06-10 · Median 45 2026-06-11 · Median 45 2026-06-12 · Median 45 2026-06-13 · Median 45 2026-06-14 · Median 45 2026-06-15 · Median 45 2026-06-16 · Median 45 2026-06-17 · Median 45 2026-06-18 · Median 45 2026-06-19 · Median 45 2026-06-20 · Median 45 2026-06-21 · Median 45 2026-06-22 · Median 45 2026-06-23 · Median 45 2026-06-24 · Median 45 2026-06-25 · Median 45 2026-06-26 · Median 45 2026-06-28 · Median 45 2026-06-29 · Median 45 2026-06-30 · Median 45 2026-07-01 · Median 45 2026-07-03 · Median 47 2026-07-05 · Median 47 2026-07-07 · Median 47 2026-07-09 · Median 47 2026-07-11 · Median 47 2026-07-12 · Median 47 2026-07-14 · Median 47 2026-07-16 · Median 47 2026-07-21 · Median 47 2026-07-22 · Median 47 2026-07-23 · Median 47 2026-07-24 · Median 45 2026-07-25 · Median 45 2026-07-26 · Median 45 2026-07-27 · Median 45 2026-07-28 · Median 45 2026-07-29 · Median 45 2026-07-30 · Median 45 2026-07-31 · Median 45 2026-08-01 · Median 45 2026-08-03 · Median 45 2026-08-05 · Median 45 2026-08-07 · Median 45 2026-08-08 · Median 45 2026-08-09 · Median 45 2026-08-10 · Median 45 2026-08-11 · Median 45 2026-08-13 · Median 45 2026-08-14 · Median 45 2026-08-16 · Median 45 2026-08-17 · Median 45 2026-08-18 · Median 45 2026-08-19 · Median 45 2026-08-20 · Median 53 2026-08-22 · Median 53 2026-08-23 · Median 52.5 2026-08-25 · Median 52.5 2026-08-27 · Median 53 2026-08-28 · Median 53 2026-09-01 · Median 54 2026-09-02 · Median 54 2026-09-03 · Median 54 2026-09-05 · Median 54 2026-09-06 · Median 54 2026-09-09 · Median 54 2026-09-14 · Median 54.3 2026-09-15 · Median 54 2026-09-16 · Median 54 2026-09-17 · Median 54 2026-09-18 · Median 54 2026-09-19 · Median 54 2026-09-21 · Median 54 2026-09-22 · Median 54 2026-09-24 · Median 54 2026-09-25 · Median 54 2026-06-04 2026-09-25

2026-09-25 · Median 54

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
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Metrics to follow

BB/9 2.2

Primary strike-throwing checkpoint

Definition

Walks allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower is generally better

WHIP 1.10

Tracks total traffic allowed

Definition

Walks and hits allowed per inning pitched. Lower is generally better

K-BB% 17.1%

Balances dominance against walks

Definition

Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, a compact measure of pitcher dominance and control

Next checkpointRecheck BB/9, WHIP, and K-BB% after the next 20 innings

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G20
IP105.0
ERA3.77
WHIP1.14
K/98.5
BB/92.2
K-BB%17.1%

3 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range+0.2%
505459
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 55

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
MLB / Model Watch
Confidence87
TypePitcher

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production52.2
Historical 80% error band31–73
MLB arrival in 3 years20%
Productive MLB role in 3 years2%

The next-season score assumes at least 20 IP. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Fastball icon
Fastball40Developmental
Slider icon
Slider50Avg
Changeup icon
Changeup60Above Avg
Command icon
Control55Avg
Overall icon
Overall40Developmental

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileFastballSliderChangeupCommand20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Changeup Feel

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels0010.242209.21611112251.864.66
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
2026Bowling Green Hot RodsHigh-A116.3355021.127151538161.646.75
2026Charleston RiverDogsSingle-A423.471111062.1512524814641.049.24
2026FCL RaysFCL202.1144021.1165514190.948.02
20263 teams · TotalAll levels733.7720200105.09445441226991.148.49

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-25T14:54:05.

More Tampa Bay Rays profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.