Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Alex Overbay

PIT · Single-A · P · Age 22

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score33.9#4,029 Overall
Baseline39Most likely outcome
Performance47Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor26Lower-end outcome
Baseline39Most likely outcome
Ceiling50High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of meaningful developmental upside. The primary separator is whether the current progress can hold while projection risk remains elevated.

Performance

Selected evidence
47Developing performance profile
Balanced Performance Profile

No individual statistical signal is disproportionately driving the current Performance Score.

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceLimited33How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskLimited74Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusInsufficient current-season sample
Player Background
OrganizationPittsburgh Pirates
LevelSingle-A
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 41 Latest recorded 39
45 40 35 2026-09-02 · Median 41 2026-09-03 · Median 41 2026-09-05 · Median 41 2026-09-06 · Median 41 2026-09-09 · Median 41 2026-09-14 · Median 40.7 2026-09-15 · Median 41 2026-09-16 · Median 41 2026-09-17 · Median 41 2026-09-18 · Median 41 2026-09-19 · Median 41 2026-09-21 · Median 41 2026-09-22 · Median 41 2026-09-24 · Median 41 2026-09-25 · Median 41 2026-09-29 · Median 41 2026-09-30 · Median 41 2026-10-03 · Median 41 2026-10-04 · Median 39 2026-10-05 · Median 39 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 39

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0539
2026-10-0439
2026-10-0341
2026-09-3041
2026-09-2941
2026-09-2541
2026-09-2441
2026-09-2241
2026-09-2141
2026-09-1941
2026-09-1841
2026-09-1741
2026-09-1641
2026-09-1541
2026-09-1440.7
2026-09-0941
2026-09-0641
2026-09-0541
2026-09-0341
2026-09-0241