Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Alexander Frias

STL · Single-A · OF

St. Louis Cardinals · Age at assessment: 18.5 · Bats: L · Throws: R

Results Ahead of Tools
Compare
Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Contact results ahead of the tool grade

Current contact and on-base results are outperforming the verified hit-tool expectation

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#92
Prospect Score75
Median71
Performance64
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Hit 45; contact evidence sits near the 82th percentile for comparable players
  • K% is 20.6%

What could change the read

  • A 0.405 OBP is keeping the offensive foundation intact

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Contact+40.0 percentile gap
Expected 42 Observed 82
Game Power+14.1 percentile gap
Expected 67 Observed 81

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 56 Latest recorded 71
88 70 52 2026-06-04 · Median 56 2026-06-05 · Median 56 2026-06-06 · Median 56 2026-06-07 · Median 60 2026-06-08 · Median 60 2026-06-09 · Median 60 2026-06-10 · Median 59 2026-06-11 · Median 59 2026-06-12 · Median 59 2026-06-13 · Median 62 2026-06-14 · Median 65 2026-06-15 · Median 65 2026-06-16 · Median 64 2026-06-17 · Median 64 2026-06-18 · Median 64 2026-06-19 · Median 65 2026-06-20 · Median 67 2026-06-21 · Median 67 2026-06-22 · Median 67 2026-06-23 · Median 67 2026-06-24 · Median 67 2026-06-25 · Median 84 2026-06-26 · Median 84 2026-06-28 · Median 84 2026-06-29 · Median 84 2026-06-30 · Median 84 2026-07-01 · Median 84 2026-07-03 · Median 82 2026-07-05 · Median 82 2026-07-07 · Median 82 2026-07-09 · Median 82 2026-07-11 · Median 82 2026-07-12 · Median 82 2026-07-14 · Median 82 2026-07-16 · Median 82 2026-07-21 · Median 82 2026-07-22 · Median 82 2026-07-23 · Median 82 2026-07-24 · Median 82 2026-07-25 · Median 82 2026-07-26 · Median 82 2026-07-27 · Median 82 2026-07-28 · Median 82 2026-07-29 · Median 82 2026-07-30 · Median 82 2026-07-31 · Median 82 2026-08-01 · Median 82 2026-08-03 · Median 82 2026-08-05 · Median 82 2026-08-07 · Median 82 2026-08-08 · Median 82 2026-08-09 · Median 82 2026-08-10 · Median 82 2026-08-11 · Median 82 2026-08-13 · Median 82 2026-08-14 · Median 82 2026-08-16 · Median 82 2026-08-17 · Median 82 2026-08-18 · Median 82 2026-08-19 · Median 82 2026-08-20 · Median 82 2026-08-22 · Median 82 2026-08-23 · Median 81.6 2026-08-25 · Median 81.6 2026-08-27 · Median 82 2026-08-28 · Median 82 2026-09-01 · Median 82 2026-09-02 · Median 82 2026-09-03 · Median 82 2026-09-05 · Median 82 2026-09-06 · Median 82 2026-09-09 · Median 71 2026-09-14 · Median 70.6 2026-09-15 · Median 71 2026-09-16 · Median 71 2026-09-17 · Median 71 2026-09-18 · Median 71 2026-09-19 · Median 71 2026-09-21 · Median 71 2026-09-22 · Median 71 2026-09-24 · Median 71 2026-06-04 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 · Median 71

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2471
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2026-09-2171
2026-09-1971
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2026-06-0456

Metrics to follow

K% 20.6%

Primary contact-pressure indicator

Definition

Percentage of plate appearances ending in a strikeout. Lower is generally better for hitters

BB% 11.3%

Shows whether patience offsets swing-and-miss

Definition

Percentage of plate appearances ending in a walk

OBP 0.405

Tracks the overall on-base foundation

Definition

On-base percentage, measuring how often a hitter reaches base

Next checkpointRecheck K%, BB%, and OBP after the next 75 plate appearances

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G86
PA373
AVG.314
OBP.405
SLG.500
OPS.905
HR10
SB25
BB%11.3%
K%20.6%

3 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
667177
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 64

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 3
MLB / Model Watch73 signal Top 100 Watch
Confidence90
TypePosition Player

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production43.0
Historical 80% error band27–59
MLB arrival in 3 years43%
Productive MLB role in 3 years8%

The next-season score assumes at least 100 PA. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Hit icon
Hit45Fringe
Power icon
Power60Above Avg
Speed icon
Speed50Avg
Defense icon
Defense50Avg
Arm icon
Arm60Above Avg
Overall icon
Overall50Avg

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileHitPowerSpeedDefenseArm20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Balanced Position Player

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels93931780103892.258.410.323.733
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2026Palm Beach CardinalsSingle-A251109315234121113306.247.355.376.731
2026Wilson WarbirdsSingle-A2912611119264242813267.234.325.414.740
2026ACL BrewersACL321371183352122434162112.441.518.6781.196
20263 teams · TotalAll levels86373322671012051073427725.314.405.500.905
2025DSL Brewers GoldDSL271129522305011714217.316.411.400.811

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-24T08:35:32.

More St. Louis Cardinals profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.